What Are The Advantages And Disadvantages Of Scenario Planning

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With the global economy developed, organizations have to live in a more complex and changeable environment, making decision according to various factors that could make a difference, such as technology, environment, regulation and policy etc. The ability to adapt changes and deal with future possibility is vital for organizations to survive in a world changes rapidly. However, it seems to be not sufficient to use traditional approaches of strategy in such highly uncertain, intensive and complex competitive environment (Celeste Amorim Varum, 2010). Scenario planning is another tool that has gained much attention during the last decades as an effective tool for sorting future uncertainties and investigating assumptions in organizations (P. Schwartz, 1991).
Nowadays, future changes too rapidly to be
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We all know that future cannot be predicted even the weather forecast, which based on accurate data, is not that precise sometimes. Scenario planning provides a solution for organizations to develop in uncertainty by assuming various possibilities about future and help people to make a better decision or plan accordingly.
In my opinion, there are three advantages of scenario planning which made it become widely used by organizations in the process of decision making. Firstly, scenario planning can improve the decision making mechanism and activate the managing system, improving the decision making with a more scientific and interactive process. TAIDA™ is a primary model for scenario planning. Hundreds of scenario projects have been carried out on the basis of the model in the past decade (Mats Lindgren, 2003). TAIDA is short for five steps below: Tracking: trace changes and signs of threats and opportunities by clarifying future trend; Analyzing: analyze consequences of the changes and
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