preview

What Is Long Term Trends In Stock Earnings And Dividends From 1871 To The Present?

Decent Essays

This is our first report in our quarterly series on income investing. Please let us know if you have any suggestions for future content. We studied long term trends in stock earnings and dividends from 1871 to the present. We observed two distinct periods: 1) from 1871 to 1945 where the common dividend policy was to focus on high payout ratios; 2) after 1945 companies started managing the amount of dividends paid per share. In the latter period, companies were slow to increase dividends as earnings increased, effectively reducing the payout ratio and providing them with a cushion to maintain dividends when earnings dropped temporarily. As a result, the payout ratio dropped, hitting a historical low of 30% in 2011. Since then, companies …show more content…

Global Infrastructure: Our recent Global Infrastructure report highlights the attractive valuations seen in the group. Additionally, rising CapEx spending should support fundamentals and earnings visibility. While we are generally favorable on the group, rate volatility around Fed hikes remains a risk. A look at interest rate sensitivity within equities suggests that highly rate sensitive stocks have come under pressure. This was seen in a dramatic fashion in the back half of 2016. As rates rose, our Small Cap negative bond beta basket only gained 1.0% vs. 25.0% for the positive beta basket. More recently, as the US long bond has rallied, the negative rate beta basket have has performed in line. Our negatively disposed bond beta basket gained 1.3% while the positive beta basket gained 0.1%. A combination of favorable jobs data coupled with strong housing data suggests that the Fed will continue to roll out its policy of hiking short term rates. The back end of 2017 should continue to present adverse rate pressures for equity portfolios. Deciphering your interest rate exposures should offer shelter if interest rates continue to back-up. Our recent report, Cirrus Notepad: Watch your Bond Beta! 21 February 2017 made the case that measures of rate sensitivity were a better method of isolating rate risk than dividend yield levels. Large Cap High Dividend stocks gained 12.6% in 2016 amidst the rising rate backdrop. By comparison,

Get Access