World - Wireless Device Retail Store

Using the assumptions given in the case, all elements of income statement and balance sheet can be projected for next three years 2010, 2011 and 2012. Sales cycle of the products of the company is such that sales of a particular product increases initially for few years and then starts to decline as the new technology

One of specialty’s managers felt that the profit potential was so great that the order quantity should have a 70% chance of meeting demand and only a 30% chance of any stock-outs. What quantity would be ordered under this policy, and what is the projected profit under the three sales scenarios?

In this task I’m going to analyse the figures on cash flow that I created in P3 and justify why you think the business might have problems also provide range of solutions.

Sales (in $ 1000s)= 16,020.78118 + 149.15175 * %spanishsp – 44.16538 * %dryers – 112.48017 * %freezer – 79.84655 * %sch0-8 + 9,393.82229 * comtype1 + 3,802.26442 * comtype2 – 3,123.24462 * comtype7

I would suggest them to check there total revenue and their total variable cost, if the firm is able to cover its total variable cost and even a small portion of fixed cost, it would be better to run the business. On the other hand if firm is not even able to cover its total variable cost

Account W/P Common Common # Title Ref. Balance Size Balance Size Amount Percentage REVENUE 40000 Sales 246,172,918.44 102.33% 245,213,452.88 106.40% -959,465.56 -0.39% 41000 Sales Returns 4,497,583.20 1.87% 13,600,220.89 5.90% 9,102,637.69 202.39% 42000 Warranty Exp 1,100,281.48 0.46% 1,158,128.47 0.50% 57,846.99 5.26% Net Sales 240,575,053.76 100.00% 230,455,103.52 100.00% (10,119,950.24) -4.21% EXPENSES 50000 COGS 141,569,221.61 58.85% 130,246,645.26 56.52% (11,322,576.35) -8.00% Gross Margin 99,005,832.15 41.15% 100,208,458.26 43.48% 1,202,626.11 1.21% GA-7.4

Seeing the current debt in the business, the current demographic data, market trend and the required investment to develop from now, it can only be expected to break even in the next 5 years. Investing more money whilst staying in debt seems a risky way to take (profit 506.32% of the monthly average in 2009), with investment of $850,000.

Thus, by year three the company will be making a profit off the investment as year three is 86.73 million profit by 55.35 cost giving the company a 31.38 million dollar surplus. Generally, a period of payback of three year or less is acceptable (Reference Entry) causing this project to be viable based off the payback analysis. Although, these calculations are flawed. The reason for this is because the time value of money is not taken into effect when calculating payback periods which is where IRR can further assist in a more realistic financial picture (Reference Entry).

2. Forecast the firm’s financial statements for 2002 and 2003. What will be the external financing requirements of the firm in those years? Can the firm repay its loan within a reasonable period? In order to forecast the financial statements of 2002 and 2003, the following assumptions need to be made. The growth of sales is 15%, same as 2001, which is estimated by managers. The rate of production costs and expenses per sales is constant to 50%. Administration and selling expenses is the average of last 4 years. The depreciation is $7.8 million per year, which is calculated by $54.6 million divided by 7 years. Tax rate is 24.5%, which is provided. The dividend is $2 million per year only when the company makes profits. Therefore, we assume that there will be no dividend in 2003. Gross PPE will be $27.3 million (54.6/2) per year. We also assume there is no more long term debt, because any funds need in the case are short term debt, it keeps at $18.2 million. According to the forecast, Star River needs external financing approximately $94 million and $107 million in 2002 and 2003, respectively. In order to analysis if the company can repay the debt, we need to know the interest coverage ratio, current ratio and D/E ratio. The interest coverage ratios through the forecast were 1.23 and 0.87 respectively, which is the danger signal to the managers, because in 2003, the profits even not

Greaves provided five years and two months of annual sales data. Using Stat Tools, the following analysis were run: Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing Simple, Exponential Smoothing Holt’s, and Exponential Smoothing Winter’s. Following a comparison on the average on all models, the Exponential Smoothing Winter’s was found to be the most suitable model for the case. A graph

Using the assumptions given in the case, all elements of income statement and balance sheet can be projected for next three years 2010, 2011 and 2012. Sales cycle of the products of the company is such that sales of a particular product increases initially for few years and then starts to decline as the new

Scenario 3 shows us what would happen if he fails and looses market share. According to the case, Miller would make the visit to the dentist more pleasurable and stress-less. The only way this scenario can happen is if new competition come in or he does a bad job in fixing teeth. Just to show the “worst case scenario,” I set growth rate at 0% and the rest of the years decline 5%. We would hope that after declining of sales, Miller would liquidate the firm in 2009. As we can see, change in working capital is increasing as sales are decreasing, which means he can’t pay off the debits. If we look at the cash flow forecast, if Miller decides to liquidate the firm in 2009, then the book value of the fixed assets would be 14,836 and the salvage value would be 10,385. This scenario is unlikely to occur

$2,000,000 + No. of employees * $500,000 = No. of employees * Volume of sales * Selling Price

But even this is not possible in case of a new product or innovation. A forecast of sales, demand, cash, requirements and several such business valuables are extremely essential for a business in order to be able to appropriately plan and conduct its operations in an effective and efficient manner. Yet, forecasts cannot be made accurately as there are several factors and changes in the current environment that leads to variations in forecasts and impacts or causes a manager to make changes in the forecasts.

To practice using “what-if” analysis for estimating the financial performance of the firm and its potential for profitability.