MATTEO
Exchange rate
Housing issues
Private and public consumption
Investments opportunities: pros and cons
EXCHANGE RATE
Sterling has been floating since the UK withdraw from membership of the ERM in September 1992. Since that moment, the Bank of England has not intervened to influence the pound’s value, as it became independent from the UK government.
With a free floating exchange rate, the value of the currency is simply determined by supply and demand of the market. The Central Bank cannot set a target exchange rate and intervene in the market exchange rate for this purpose.
The advantages of a free floating rate are several:
No exchange rate target, so the Central Bank doesn’t need to hold foreign reserves;
Use of
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This recovery is mostly due to the government schemes to make credit more easily available and to the accommodative monetary policy of the Bank of England. The credit easiness results in a higher demand from the market, with obvious positive implications in the field.
However, some experts say that the main risk that could arise is the outbreak of a new housing bubble. The proof of this would be the leap in house prices in London of 10.2% between September and October.4
Many argue, however, that the problem would be simply due to the fact that the offer has not been able to adapt to a growing demand, after the sharp decline in the previous years.
PRIVATE AND PUBLIC CONSUMPTION
According to the Office for National Statistics5, in Q2 2013 private spending (adjusted for inflation) grew by 0.3% on previous quarter, reaching £661m. In terms of volumes, household spending has increased by 0.3% but still remains 2.8% below the peak of spending in Q4 2007. Anyway, the recovery of private consumption is slowly materializing, since consumption in terms of volume are 4% higher than the recent low in Q2 2009.
The chart below shows the private consumption developement by quarter.
If instead we focus on the value of consumption at current prices,we will notice that in the second quarter 2013 current price spending increased by 0.9% compared with Q1, continuing the positive trend of growth
Currency exchange rates can be categorised as floating, in which case they constantly change based on a number of factors, or they can subsequently be fixed to another currency, where they still float, but they additionally move in conjunction with the currency to which they are pegged. Floating rates are a reflection of market movement, demonstrating the principles of both demand and supply, as well as limit imbalances in the international financial system. Fixed exchange rates are predominantly used by developing countries as they are preferred for their greater stability. They grant further control to central banks to set currency values, and are often used to evade market abuse. (MacEachern, A. 2008; Simmons, P.
According to Staff review of the Economic Situation for January 28-29, the economic growth rate picked up in the second half of 2013. There was a gradual increase in the total payroll employment and a decline in unemployment rate. Consumer price inflation was still performing poorly than expected, while longer-term inflation expectations remained stable.
The increase largely showed a positive contribution from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, state and local government spending, and exports. Current-dollar GDP increased 3.4 percent, or $589.8 billion, in 2015 to a level of $17,937.8 billion, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent, or $684.9 billion, in 2014. Real disposable personal income rose 3.4 percent over the past four quarters, a rapid pace. At the same time, real consumer spending rose only 2.6 percent. This difference indicates that consumers have tended to save a rising fraction of their income gains over the past year.
The 2008 Great Recession helped in restoring economic growth and lowered unemployment. Both fiscal and monetary policies are related ways use to increase the aggregate demand and aggregate supply. So, a shift in the aggregate demand curve to the right is expansionary fiscal policy meaning government spending has to exceed (2012). The G- component aggregate demand help to spend, allowing the C- component of aggregate demand to increase. On the other hand, the monetary policy promotes spending, investments, and lending increasing aggregate demand. During the downturn, the systems concentrate on growing demand total while the supply strategy looked for long-term growth in productivity and efficiency (Pettinger, 2012).
In the time period shown in the BEA release highlights document (2015, bea.gov), it is clear that real GDP increased 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2015, according to the third estimate by the BEA. The document also states that the main driver of the increasing GDP is the rise in consumer spending on
According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, consumer spending drives about two-thirds of the GDP, and economists expect that spending in the third quarter has been brisk, given relatively high consumer confidence levels. Home-grown demand won’t insulate the U.S. economy from a global slowdown, but it can push the U.S. toward a year of decent growth.
The U.S economy is a mixed economy and it is the largest in the world. It accounts for 17 to 22 percent of the world’s GDP. Consumer spending in U.S accounts for 70% of the national economy. People generally spend on necessities like food, housing and clothes and on buying non-essential goods and services that fall under discretionary spending category. With a huge reduction in gas price and unemployment there is a steady increase in discretionary spending these days. According to U.S bureau of labor statistics consumer spending increased 3.4 percent in 2015 after advancing 4.2 percent in 2014.
While nonfarm and farm investments, final sales of domestic product, real domestic income, and corporation show an increase people are suspicious if the United States is coming out of the recession. Economists predict individuals will continue to increase spending on nondurable and durable goods, but when it comes to services the population is hesitant from the result of the downturn in the housing.
The “Great Recession” is commonly used to explain the massive economic contraction that occurred in the United States during the fourth quarter of 2007. However, the actions of the United States spanned to other nations, leaving massive effect on the global economy. One nation that took on serious financial burden during this recession was the United Kingdom. This nation first faced the effects of the Great Recession beginning in the first quarter of 2008. Overall, the initial mass effects on the nation can be attributed to the nation’s reliance on the financial sector. In fact, after partially stabilizing in 2009, the country struggled with a double-dip recession between 2010-12, and continues to struggle with some of these effects.
since there is a shortage of houses there is a rush to try and build more and a not much of an incentive to maintain properties. So, the quality of housing will start going down.
The economic reforms initiated by Prime Minister Margret Thatcher since 1980’s has made the United Kingdom record steady economic growth in the 1990s. However, successive Labour governments increased government spending significantly. Since 2010, the government upheld austerity as the principal of its economic policy. In 2014, the country recorded its strongest economic growth since 2007 of 2.387 trillion dollars with GDP per capita at 39,350.64 dollars. The GDP increased significantly because of the enhanced performance of the construction, manufacturing, and services sectors. Retail sales also increased with unemployment relatively at lowest
However, the economy seems to be recovering faster than economists had originally predicted. With GDP and consumer spending up year over year, we feel that the worst is behind us and growth will continue globally through 2012. As unemployment starts to fall and credit starts to loosen up, we feel consumers will continue to increase their spending.
Such a process can be very time consuming and imprecise, without, of course, having a market currency price to begin with. The exchange-rate system is an important topic in international economic policy. Policymakers and journalists often seem to treat the choice of exchange-rate system as one of the most important economic policy choices that a national government makes, on a par with free international trade. Under most circumstances and for most countries, a system of freely floating exchange rates is likely to be a better choice than attempting to peg the exchange rate.
Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the UK government has been implementing various policies to combat the recession and stimulate economic growth. This essay will look at how effective the fiscal and monetary policies used since the crisis are in achieving the four-macro economic objectives. In addition, I will provide my input on the best way the UK government can carry out these policies.
Lardy points out that since the beginning of 1990’s, the consumption growth, as a source of economic growth, has diminished substantially compared with other sources, such as investment and exports. Specifically, household consumption dropped from slightly more than half of GDP in the 1980’s to an average of 46 percent in the 1990’s. After 2000, household consumption kept decreasing. By 2005, it only accounted for 38 percent of GDP, the lowest share of any major economy in the world. From the beginning of the decade until the global