lies,damned lies and statistics

Statistics provides us with very useful tools and techniques that aide us in dealing with real world scenarios. I have been able to learn several useful concepts by studying statistics that can aide me in making rational and informed decisions that are supported by the analysis results. Statistics as a discipline is the application and development of various processes put in place to gather, interpret, and analyse the information. The quantification of biological, social, and scientific phenomenons, design and analysis of experiments and surveys, and application of

Lies have been around for as long as people have been. We all lie, whether it is to protect someone we love of to cover up something we don’t want others to know about, it is still lying, and we all do it everyday. Lying has become the new normal for our modern society, so much so, that some of us have lost our morals completely. It is just so much easier and quicker to just lie to someone than to tell the truth, and now you can never tell who is lying to you or who is telling the truth. People use to have morals about lying and many people would feel bad about it and teach their children to never lie, but now in today’s society they just pop out of our mouths like they're nothing. We will never stop lying because it’s easier to live a lie

A lie is neither a false proposition, nor a mistake, nor a mere fiction; it is a type of intentional fiction, a precise act that calls for a twist in reality. This act, the lie, produces effects. The cause-effect relationship of a lie affects an individual or group in a way that twists the personal reality of the subject(s) from the objective reality (the way that things truthfully are) (Raspa 105). Examples of how reality is twisted by lies are rather prevalent in today’s media. Leaders have always tried to manipulate the truth, with modern politics wanting to control the narrative. The most relevant of these examples is mutability of fact for which President Trump has become notorious. He lies, repeats the lie, and his urge to tell them purely reflect a present day Big Brother, from George Orwell’s 1984. When lies are told so often, and so repeatedly, fighting the lie becomes not simply more dangerous, but more exhausting than repeating it. The act of falsifying reality is merely a secondarily way of changing perceptions. It is, above all, a way of asserting power. This can be exemplified in one particular circumstance when Trump falsely claimed that millions of illegal votes were cast against him in addition to his administration making unfounded allegations that Trump’s inauguration had record attendance. In response, Kellyanne Conway, infamously coined the false number as “alternative facts,” as opposed to the actual statistics (Beale, We're living

In the video "How Statistics Fool Juries," Oxford mathematician Peter Donnelly attempts to demonstrate through a number of examples how statistics, when viewed in a common manner, can be misunderstood and how this can have legal repercussions. Through a number of thought experiments, Donnelly provides the audience with examples of how seemingly simple statistics can be misinterpreted and how many more variables must be taken into account when calculating chance. Primarily he exposes the audience to the concept of relative difference, or the difference in likelihood between two possibilities in the same scenario. He then goes on to explain that without an understanding of this concept, many juries misunderstand statistics used in trials and very often convict people based on this faulty understanding.

"Each trick crumples in the end as a result of the mental probability that the individuals who are superlatively sharp at beguiling others turn out to be similarly astute at misdirecting themselves. Disinformation eats the individuals who make it."

Whether research is experimental or developmental, there are no guarantees of perfect study processes or results, since both random and systematic errors are expected. Errors and uncertainties of a study’s outcomes surface almost every time. Faulty, aged or incorrectly calibrated instruments, during an experiment, can lead to important alterations of results. Distracting environments definitely influence the outcome. Finally, the human parameter in the sense of having ability to properly operate instruments and correctly interpret measurements definitely consist another factor of imperfect research (Bell 7-9).

3. According to the authors, what are the “three simple steps to doing Statistics right?” 4. What

4. a) An example of statistics is the statement “Between the ages of 15 and 24, they take their lives five times as often.”

the audience, and it is hard to put it to perspective. Therefore, a statistic is appealing to the

In chapter 3 in Freakonomics by Stevin Levitt and Stephen Dubner, it concentrates on conventional wisdom. The chapter begins by discussing about conventional wisdom, and how conventional can be wrong. Conventional wisdom was invented by John Kenneth Galbraith to explain generally acceptance by the public. It is furthered explained that conventional wisdom is associated with convenience. That many experts used it for their own agenda. But then explained how asking pointed questions can often overturn conventional wisdom. The authors provide some examples of when people have done some creative lying to draw attention. One of the examples was about getting people’s attention on how rape is a serious problem, it’s much more attention grabbing to tell people that it occurs in every one in three women, rather than the

There were 5 areas in this section. The insensitivity to base rates stated that we almost always ignore these even if there is false information provided. The insensitivity to sample size is the fact that we ignore what is presented to us, and do not take the sample size into account at all. The misconceptions of chance states that outcomes will be random, even if there is no valid statistical reason for it. The regression to the mean is us ignoring the fact that things can change over time. The example in the text was batting averages, and how they can widely differ over time. The conjunction fallacy is when we judge falsely that two items in a subset are more important than any one item. We tend to think the more descriptive label if more accurate than just a plain label. It seems simple but we feel that being more descriptive is the right thing to

In his 2013 book, Naked Statistics, Charles Wheelan explains a field that is commonly seen, commonly applied, and commonly misinterpreted: statistics. Though statistical data is ubiquitous in daily life, valid statistical conclusions are not. Wheelan reveals that when data analysis is flawed or incomplete, faulty conclusions abound. Wheelan’s work uncovers statistics’ unscrupulous potential, but also makes a key distinction between deliberate misuse and careless misreading. However, his analysis is less successful in distinguishing common sense from poor judgement, a gap that enables the very statistical issues he describes to perpetuate themselves.

In How to Lie with Statistics (Huff, 1954), Darrel Huff deciphers statistical examples and explains the means of deception that statistics and statisticians sometimes use to relay false information. Huff also conveys an underlying message of don’t believe everything you’re told, something him and my mother have in common. At first glance, a reader might think that this book will teach people how to actually lie using statistics, but that is not the case. It gives the reader a glimpse or a behind the curtain view of how easily it is to be deceived using numbers and how it is slyly achieved. Ironically he calls the book How to Lie with Statistics almost to tease his audience that the content in this book is not as it appears. To my utmost surprise, I actually rather enjoyed this book. It was a fairly simple read that was filled with new information and showed me how to look closer at statistical figures in the future. The humor was spot on so much, so that I even chuckled aloud occasionally. For the icing on the cake, I even expanded my vocabulary to learn fun words such as rotogravure.

c.)Find a 95% confidence interval for the difference between the above obtained mean starting salaries.

How much do we really know about our country, our district, or even our hometown? Are statistics really what people think? According to Alan Smith, an inaugural recipient of the Royal Statistical Society's Award for Excellence in Official Statistics, what people think is always extremely different than what the real statistic truly is. In his Ted Talk, entitled “Why We Should Love Statistics”, he discusses his study of statistics which opened up a whole new vision of the subject for me. Before watching this Ted Talk, statistics was simply a more relatable math class. After watching, I see now that statistics is also a method to connect people within communities. In fact, while statistics is a field that involves entirely numbers, it should