Consider an assembly line with 20 stations. Each station has a 0.5% probability of making a defect. At the end of the line, an inspection step singles out the defective units. The inspection step catches 80% of all defects. From inspection, units that are deemed to be non-defective are moved to the shipping department. If a defect is found at inspection, it is sent to the rework department. Rework fixes about 95% of the defective units. Units are directly shipped from the rework department with no further inspection taking place. What is the probability that a defective unit is shipped (in decimal form)?

Consider an assembly line with 20 stations. Each station has a 0.5% probability of making a defect. At the end of the line, an inspection step singles out the defective units. The inspection step catches 80% of all defects. From inspection, units that are deemed to be non-defective are moved to the shipping department. If a defect is found at inspection, it is sent to the rework department. Rework fixes about 95% of the defective units. Units are directly shipped from the rework department with no further inspection taking place. What is the probability that a defective unit is shipped (in decimal form)?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter10: Introduction To Simulation Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 41P: At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 =...

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At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.
In designing a new space vehicle, NASA needs to decide whether to provide 0, 1 or 2 backup systems for a critical component of the vehicle. The first backup system, if included, comes into use only if the original system fails. The second backup system, if included, comes into use only if the original system and the first backup system both fail. NASA engineers claim that each system, independent of the others, has a 1.5% chance of failing if called into use. Each backup system costs $70,000 to produce and install within the vehicle. Once the vehicle is in flight, the mission will be scrubbed (ended early) only if the original system and all backups fail. The cost of a scrubbed mission, in addition to production costs, is assessed to be $5,000,000. How many backup systems are needed to minimize NASA’s expected total cost?
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