6) 4 Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15 i) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data? ii)Develop a three – week moving average for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast cast for week 8. iii)Use alpha = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing value for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8. iv)Compare the three -week moving average forecast with exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain v)Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing. Coefficient Alpha that result in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for alpha = 0.2.
6) 4 Consider the following time series data.
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15
- i) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exist in the data?
ii)Develop a three – week moving average for the time series. Compute MSE and a
iii)Use alpha = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing value for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8.
iv)Compare the three -week moving average forecast with exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain
v)Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing. Coefficient Alpha that result in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for alpha = 0.2.
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