A disease afflicts 1 person in 1,000 in a population. A test for this disease results in 5% false positives. Assume that a random person is tested for the disease (this person is not selected for the test because there are other symptoms indicating the presence of the disease nor are there any special signs of being disease free). 1. Assume that there are no false negatives from this test. A person tests positive. What is the probability that the person truly has the disease? 2. Now assume that false negatives are 1 person in 100 in a population. What is the probability that the person truly has the disease?

College Algebra
10th Edition
ISBN:9781337282291
Author:Ron Larson
Publisher:Ron Larson
Chapter8: Sequences, Series,and Probability
Section8.7: Probability
Problem 11ECP: A manufacturer has determined that a machine averages one faulty unit for every 500 it produces....
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A disease afflicts 1 person in 1,000 in a population. A test for this disease results in 5% false positives. Assume that a random person is tested for the disease (this person is not selected for the test because there are other symptoms indicating the presence of the disease nor are there any special signs of being disease free).

1. Assume that there are no false negatives from this test. A person tests positive. What is the probability that the person truly has the disease?

2. Now assume that false negatives are 1 person in 100 in a population. What is the probability that the person truly has the disease?

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