A laboratory blood test is 95% effective in detecting a certain disease when it is, in fact, present. However, the test also yields a “false positive” result for 1% of the healthy persons tested. (i.e., if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability 0.01, the test result will imply he or she has the disease.) If 0.5% of the population has the disease, what is the probability a person has the disease given that the test result is positive?

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