a. 3 day moving average analysis b. 4 day moving average analysis c. 3 day weighted moving average analysis with weights w1=0.2, w2=0.3 and w3=0.5 with w1 on the oldest data

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Author:Jay Abramson
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Chapter6: Exponential And Logarithmic Functions
Section6.8: Fitting Exponential Models To Data
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The number of fishing rods selling each day is given below. Perform analyses of the time series to determine which model should be used for forecasting.

a. 3 day moving average analysis
b. 4 day moving average analysis
c. 3 day weighted moving average analysis with weights w1=0.2, w2=0.3 and w3=0.5 with w1 on the oldest data
d. exponential smoothing analysis with a = 0.3.
e. Which model provides a better fit of the data?
f. Forecast day 13 sales of fishing rods using the model chosen in part (e).

Day Rods   sold
1                  60
2                  70
3                  110
4                  80
5                  70
6                  85
7                 115
8                 105
9                  65
10                75
11                95
12                85

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