Annie tells her granddaughter, Mary, that in 1934 you could buy a house for $ 17,000 and a jacket for $ 6 . Mary says that in 2018 such a house costs $ 275,000 and such a jacket costs $ 60 . The CPI in 1934 was 15.2 , and in 2018 , it was 245.4 . Which house has the lower real price? Which jacket has the lower real price? The house with the lower price is the _______, and the jacket with the lower price is the _______. A. $275,000 house in 2018; $6 jacket in 1934 B. $17,000 house in 1934; $60 jacket in 2018 C. $275,000 house in 2018; $60 jacket in 2018 D. $17,000 house in 1934; $6 jacket in 1934

Annie tells her granddaughter, Mary, that in 1934 you could buy a house for $ 17,000 and a jacket for $ 6 . Mary says that in 2018 such a house costs $ 275,000 and such a jacket costs $ 60 . The CPI in 1934 was 15.2 , and in 2018 , it was 245.4 . Which house has the lower real price? Which jacket has the lower real price? The house with the lower price is the _, and the jacket with the lower price is the _. A. $275,000 house in 2018; $6 jacket in 1934 B. $17,000 house in 1934; $60 jacket in 2018 C. $275,000 house in 2018; $60 jacket in 2018 D. $17,000 house in 1934; $6 jacket in 1934

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 69P

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In Example 11.1, the possible profits vary from negative to positive for each of the 10 possible bids examined. a. For each of these, use @RISKs RISKTARGET function to find the probability that Millers profit is positive. Do you believe these results should have any bearing on Millers choice of bid? b. Use @RISKs RISKPERCENTILE function to find the 10th percentile for each of these bids. Can you explain why the percentiles have the values you obtain?
In the financial world, there are many types of complex instruments called derivatives that derive their value from the value of an underlying asset. Consider the following simple derivative. A stocks current price is 80 per share. You purchase a derivative whose value to you becomes known a month from now. Specifically, let P be the price of the stock in a month. If P is between 75 and 85, the derivative is worth nothing to you. If P is less than 75, the derivative results in a loss of 100(75-P) dollars to you. (The factor of 100 is because many derivatives involve 100 shares.) If P is greater than 85, the derivative results in a gain of 100(P-85) dollars to you. Assume that the distribution of the change in the stock price from now to a month from now is normally distributed with mean 1 and standard deviation 8. Let EMV be the expected gain/loss from this derivative. It is a weighted average of all the possible losses and gains, weighted by their likelihoods. (Of course, any loss should be expressed as a negative number. For example, a loss of 1500 should be expressed as -1500.) Unfortunately, this is a difficult probability calculation, but EMV can be estimated by an @RISK simulation. Perform this simulation with at least 1000 iterations. What is your best estimate of EMV?
Suppose you currently have a portfolio of three stocks, A, B, and C. You own 500 shares of A, 300 of B, and 1000 of C. The current share prices are 42.76, 81.33, and, 58.22, respectively. You plan to hold this portfolio for at least a year. During the coming year, economists have predicted that the national economy will be awful, stable, or great with probabilities 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3. Given the state of the economy, the returns (one-year percentage changes) of the three stocks are independent and normally distributed. However, the means and standard deviations of these returns depend on the state of the economy, as indicated in the file P11_23.xlsx. a. Use @RISK to simulate the value of the portfolio and the portfolio return in the next year. How likely is it that you will have a negative return? How likely is it that you will have a return of at least 25%? b. Suppose you had a crystal ball where you could predict the state of the economy with certainty. The stock returns would still be uncertain, but you would know whether your means and standard deviations come from row 6, 7, or 8 of the P11_23.xlsx file. If you learn, with certainty, that the economy is going to be great in the next year, run the appropriate simulation to answer the same questions as in part a. Repeat this if you learn that the economy is going to be awful. How do these results compare with those in part a?
A European put option allows an investor to sell a share of stock at the exercise price on the exercise data. For example, if the exercise price is 48, and the stock price is 45 on the exercise date, the investor can sell the stock for 48 and then immediately buy it back (that is, cover his position) for 45, making 3 profit. But if the stock price on the exercise date is greater than the exercise price, the option is worthless at that date. So for a put, the investor is hoping that the price of the stock decreases. Using the same parameters as in Example 11.7, find a fair price for a European put option. (Note: As discussed in the text, an actual put option is usually for 100 shares.)
Suppose you are borrowing 25,000 and making monthly payments with 1% interest. Show that the monthly payments should equal 556.11. The key relationships are that for any month t (Ending month t balance) = (Ending month t 1 balance) ((Monthly payment) (Month t interest)) (Month t interest) = (Beginning month t balance) (Monthly interest rate) Of course, the ending month 60 balance must equal 0.
#17FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLEMARKET MARKETEQUIPMENT ( $) ($)Sub 100 300,000 –200,000Oiler J 250,000 –100,000Texan 75,000 –18,000For example, if Ken purchases a Sub 100 and ifthere is a favorable market, he will realize a profitof $300,000. On the other hand, if the market is unfavorable, Ken will suffer a loss of $200,000. ButKen has always been a very optimistic decisionmaker.(a) What type of decision is Ken facing?(b) What decision criterion should he use?(c) What alternative is best? #18Although Ken Brown (discussed in Problem 3-17) is the principal owner of Brown Oil, his brother Bob iscredited with making the company a financial success. Bob is vice president of finance. Bob attributeshis success to his pessimistic attitude about business and the oil industry. Given the information fromProblem 3-17, it is likely that Bob will arrive at a different decision. What decision criterion should Bobuse, and what alternative…
Suppose that Pizza King and Noble Greek stopadvertising but must determine the price they will chargefor each pizza sold. Pizza King believes that Noble Greek’sprice is a random variable D having the following massfunction: P(D $6) .25, P(D $8) .50, P(D $10) .25. If Pizza King charges a price p1 and NobleGreek charges a price p2, Pizza King will sell 10025( p2 p1) pizzas. It costs Pizza King $4 to make a pizza.Pizza King is considering charging $5, $6, $7, $8, or $9 fora pizza. Use each decision criterion of this section todetermine the price that Pizza King should charge.
Discuss the Thaler wine problem with your group, and summarize the discussion and any conclusions in a few sentences here. “Suppose you bought a case of a good 1982 Bordeaux for $20 a bottle. The wine now sells at auction for about $75 a bottle. You have decided to drink a bottle. Which of the following best captures your feeling of the cost to you of drinking this bottle?” (Thaler, 1999) $0 $20 $20 plus interest $75 -$55 (negative $55 cost) Or something else?
Suppose that you want to invest $10,000 in the stock market by buying shares in one of two companies: A and B. Shares in company A though risky, could yield a 50% return on investment during the next year. If the stock market if conditions are not favorable (bear market) the stock may lose 20% of it value. Company B provides safe investments with 15% return in a bull market and only 5% in a bear market Ali the applications you have consulted are predicting a 60% chance for a bull market and 40% for a bear market. Where you invest your money? Construct a decision tree.
Please show the steps by using the formula for each Salalah Methanol company management is considering three competing investment Projects Option1: Starting a unit in Sohar, Option 2: Starting a unit in Musandam and Option 3: Starting a unit in Muscat. The initialinvestment for all the projects are 11000 and the cost of capital is 4.05% Year Sohar Musandam Muscat 1 1100 2160 3225 2 3100 3260 4250 3 3800 4360 5475 4 4600 5460 6300 5 5100 6900 7000 Use the information below and help the management in choosing the most desirable Project using a. Payback period b. Discounted payback c. Net Present value d. Profitability Index. You have to suggest to the management which project to choose and why
4. (Arbitrage) A supplier is selling hammers in two cities, Pleasantville and Happy Valley. It costs him$5.00 per hammer delivered in each city. Let p1 be the price of hammers in Pleasantville and p2 be theprice of hammers in Happy Valley. The price-response curves in each city are:Pleasantville: d1(p1) = 10,000 - 800p1Happy Valley: d2(p2) = 8,000 - 500p2a.) Assuming the supplier can charge any prices he likes, what prices should he charge forhammers in Pleasantville and Happy Valley to maximize total contribution? What are thecorresponding demands and total contributions?b.) An enterprising arbitrageur discovers a way to transport hammers from Pleasantville toHappy Valley for $0.50 each. He begins buying hammers in Pleasantville and shipping themto Happy Valley to sell. Assuming the supplier does not change his prices from those givenin part a, what will be the optimal price for the arbitrageur to sell hammers in Happy Valley?How many will he sell? What will his total contribution be?…
A company manufactures two products. If it charges price pi for product i, it can sell qi units of product i,where q1 = 60−3p1 +p2 and q2 = 80−2p2 +p1. It costs $5 to produce a unit of product 1 and $12 to produce a unit of product 2. How many units of each product should the company produce, and what prices should it charge, to maximize its profit?