Applying the decision tree algorithm, determine and advice Koki Nkoana on the best decision to make?
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- An investor has patented a new device, and a bank is willing to lend the money to manufacture the device. Preliminary investigation establishes a suitable planning period of 5 years for the comparison of payoffs from this invention. According to the investor’s analysis, profit of $800,000 can be anticipated over the next 5 years if sales are strong; if sales are average, the investor can expect to make $200,000; and if sales are week, the investor expects to loss $50,000. Nationwide Enterprises, Inc. has offered to purchase the patent rights. Based on royalty arrangement, the inventor estimates that selling the patent rights may well bring a net profit of $400,000 if sales are strong, $70,000 if sales are average and $10,000 if sales are week. On the basis of extensive investigation of past experience with similar devices, the investor assigns the probabilities for strong, average, and week sales to be 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3 respectively. 1. Setup the payoff table for the inventor’s…A new housing development has lots of packed earth and weeds, but no grass. Two neighbors make a wager on who will be the first to have a lush lawn. Mr. Furious knows that a lawn will not grow without grass seed, so he immediately buys the most expensive seed he can find because everyone knows that quality improves with price. Besides, he will recover the cost of the seed through his wager. Next, he stands knee deep in his weeds and tosses the seed around his yard. Confident that he has a headstart on his neighbor, who is not making much visible progress, he begins his next project. Ms. Slo N. Steady, having grown up in the country, proceeds to clear the lot, till the soil, and even alter the slope of the terrain to provide better drainage. She checks the soil’s pH, applies weed killer and fertilizer, and then distributes the grass seed evenly with a spreader. She applies a mulch cover and waters the lawn appropriately. She finishes several days after her neighbor, who asks if she…In Benefit/cost ratio analysis, if the salvage value is used to recover the first cost, it is being considered as: Select one: a. negative cost b. cost c. benefit d. disbenefit =================== Ali takes out a loan at 10 percent compounded annually for 7 years. At the end of this period, he pays off the loan at a value of $23,384.61. What amount did he borrow? Select one: a. $12,000.00 b. $15,000.00 c. $14,000.00 d. $13,000.00 ============= While considering the engineering economy concepts, the most important tense almost all exercises deal with is the annual worth. Select one: True False Ans all
- Combined-cycle power plants use two combustion turbines to produce electricity. Heat from the first turbine’s exhaust is captured to heat waterand produce steam sent to a second steam turbine that generates additional electricity. A 968-megawatt combined-cycle gas fired plant can be purchased for $450 million, has no salvage value, and produces a net cash flow(revenues less expenses) of $50 million per year over its expected 30-year life. Solve, a. If the hurdle rate (MARR) is 12% per year, how profitable an investment is this power plant? b. What is the simple payback period for the plant? Is this investment acceptable?A retailer must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location. Demand at the location can be either low or high, with probabilities estimated to be 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If a small facility is built and demand proves to be high, the manager may choose not to expand (payoff = $223,000) or to expand (payoff = $270,000). If a small facility is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the payoff is $200,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, the choice is to do nothing ($40,000) or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising may be either modest or sizable, with their probabilities estimated to be 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If it is modest, the payoff is estimated to be only $20,000; the payoff grows to $220,000 if the response is sizable. Finally, if a large facility is built and demand turns out to be high, the payoff is $800,000.Draw a decision tree. Then analyze it to determine the…Pascal's current wealth is $140 and he has exponential utility with 0.002. He is considering the purchase of a lottery that mat costs SX There la a 40% chance that the ticket will have a St0 payoff, otherwise it will be worth $0. (a) What would Pancar's utility be if he did not purchase the ticket? thes (b) What woula Pascal's utility be it he purchased the ticket and won? utles to What would sa y be if he purchased the ticket and kost? What is me manum price that Pascal would be willing to pay for the lottery ticket? Piness round your aner to he neart cemt Maximum Price 1
- The Chipotle Mexican Grill In 1993, Steve Ells opened a burrito-and-taco restaurant in a Denver storefront, not far from the University of Denver campus and popular with students. He named it Chipotle Mexican Grill, after the dried pepper common in Mexican cooking. A trained chef and and graduate of the Culinary Institute of America, Steve's idea was for Chipotle to be a cash cow to help him finance a "real" upscale restaurant. Chipotle, however, began branching out: first to several locations in an around Denver, then eventually nationwide. In 1998, McDonald's bought a 91% stake in Chipotle, this was followed by a 2006 initial public offering in which McDonald's retained 69% of the stock and 88% of voting rights. By the end of 2005, there were about 500 Chipotle outlets generating approximately $600 million in sales annually. Currently, about 15,000 people are employed by Chipotle. Steve Ells still serves as the chairman and CEO. What accounts for the success? For starters: a…Brown’s TV Production is considering producing a pilot for a comedy series for a major network. While the network may reject the pilot and series, it may also purchase the program for 1 or 2 years. Brown may produce the pilot or transfer the rights for the series to a competitor for $100,000. Brown’s profits are summarized in the following payoff table (profits in thousands). sate of nature reject 1 year 2 years produce pilot -100 50 150 sell to competitor 100 100 100 For a consulting fee of $2500, an agency will review the plans for the comedy series and indicate the overall chances of a favorable network reaction to the series. Draw the decision tree for this revised decision problem. Label the tree (actions, states of nature, payoffs);A group is planning to back the production of a new musical atLusaka Playhouse. It would cost K100 000 to stage for the firstmonth. If well received by critics, it will be kept on for a further sixmonths earning a profit of K350 000. If critics dislike it, it will close atthe end of the first month. There is a 50: 50 chance of a favourablereview.Should the group invest in the musical?
- The Parable of the Green A new housing development has lots of packed earth and weeds but no grass. Two neighbors make a wager on who will be the first to have a lush lawn. Mr. F knows that a lawn will not grow without grass seed, so he immediately buys the most expensive seed he can find because everyone knows that quality improves with price. Besides, he’ll recover the cost of the seed through his wager. Next, he stands knee-deep in his weeds and tosses the seed around his yard. Confident that he has a head start on his neighbor, who is not making much visible progress, he begins his next project. Ms. Slo Steady, having grown up in the country, proceeds to clear the lot, till the soil, and even alter the slope of the terrain to provide better drainage. She checks the soil’s pH, applies weed killer and fertilizer, and then distributes the grass seed evenly with a spreader. She applies a mulch cover and waters the lawn appropriately. She finishes several days after her neighbor, who…Given the following payoff table with the profits ($m), a firm might expect alternative investments (A, B, C) under different levels of interest rate. (Attached)(a) Which alternative should the firm choose under the maximax criterion? (b) Which option should the firm choose under the maximin criterion? (c) Which option should the firm choose under the LaPlace criterion? (d) Which option should the firm choose with the Hurwicz criterion with α = 0.2? (e) Using a minimax regret approach, what alternative should the firm choose? (f) Economists have assigned probabilities of 0.35, 0.3, and 0.35 to the possible interest levels 1, 2, and 3 respectively. Using expected monetary values, what option should be chosen and what is that optimal expected value? (g) What is the most that the firm should be willing to pay for additional information? Use Expected Regret (h) Use the alternative method to verify EVPI Part 2 Assume now that the pay offs are costs answer the following: (a) Using an…Consider a project with the following cash flows: year 1, 2$400; year 2, $200; year 3, $600; year 4, 2$900; year 5, $1000; year 6, $250; year 7, $230. Assume a discount rate of 15% per year.a. Find the project’s NPV if cash flows occur at the ends of the respective years.b. Find the project’s NPV if cash flows occur at the beginnings of the respective years.c. Find the project’s NPV if cash flows occur at the middles of the respective years.