A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN: 9780134753119
Author: Sheldon Ross
Publisher: PEARSON
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Cameron is betting on a game in which the probability of winning is 1 in 5.​ He's lost five games in a​ row, so he decides to double his bet on the sixth game. What does this strategy​ show?

A)This shows good​ logic, because​ he's due for a win. A streak of bad luck calls for a future streak of good luck.

B) This shows good​ logic, because​ he's more likely to win when the bet is larger.​ That's why it is sometimes called double or nothing.

C) This shows poor​ logic, as he has an​ 80% chance of losing the double bet. His chances of winning will only change if the expected value increases.
 
D) This shows poor​ logic, as he has an​ 80% chance of losing the double bet. The past bad luck has no bearing on the future chances. His chances of winning never change.
 
E) This shows good​ logic, because​ he's due for a win. When the chances are 1 in​ 5, losing five in a row means that the sixth try will be a win.
 
F) This shows good​ logic, because​ he's more likely to win when the bet is larger. More is at​ stake, so​ he'll concentrate on the game better.
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