Consider the following scenario analysis: Rate of Return Bonds 19% 9% Scenario Probability Stocks Recession 0.20 -4% Normal economy 0.40 20% Boom 0.40 26% 8% a. Is it reasonable to assume that Treasury bonds will provide higher returns in recessions than in booms? O No O Yes b. Calculate the expected rate of return and standard deviation for each investment. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Enter your answers as a percent rounded to 1 decimal place.)

EBK CONTEMPORARY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
14th Edition
ISBN:9781337514835
Author:MOYER
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Chapter8: Analysis Of Risk And Return
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 14P
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Consider the following scenario analysis:
Rate of Return
Scenario
Probability
Stocks
Bonds
Recession
0.20
-4%
19%
Normal economy
20%
26%
0.40
9%
Вoom
0.40
8%
a. Is it reasonable to assume that Treasury bonds will provide higher returns in recessions than in booms?
O No
O Yes
b. Calculate the expected rate of return and standard deviation for each investment. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Enter
your answers as a percent rounded to 1 decimal place.)
Expected Rate of
Return
Standard Deviation
Stocks
%
%
Bonds
%
%
c. Which investment would you prefer?
Transcribed Image Text:Consider the following scenario analysis: Rate of Return Scenario Probability Stocks Bonds Recession 0.20 -4% 19% Normal economy 20% 26% 0.40 9% Вoom 0.40 8% a. Is it reasonable to assume that Treasury bonds will provide higher returns in recessions than in booms? O No O Yes b. Calculate the expected rate of return and standard deviation for each investment. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Enter your answers as a percent rounded to 1 decimal place.) Expected Rate of Return Standard Deviation Stocks % % Bonds % % c. Which investment would you prefer?
Expert Solution
Step 1

expected rate of return for stocks = 0.20 * (-0.04) +0.40 *(0.20) +0.40 * (0.26)

                                                           = -0.008 +0.08 +0.104

                                                            = 0.176

                                                            = 17.6%

expected rate of return for bonds = 0.20 *(0.19) +0.40 * (0.09) +0.40 * (0.08)

                                                            = 0.038 +0.036 +0.032

                                                            = 0.106

                                                             = 10.6%

 

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