Construct a time series plot.  What type of pattern exists?                        Develop a forecast for the next month using the averaging method.     Develop a forecast for the next month using the naïve last-value method.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.6: Moving Averages Models
Problem 19P: The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of a particular brand of paper towels at a...
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Consider the following set of time series sales data for a growing company over the past 8 months:

 

Month

Sales

1

15

2

13

3

18

4

22

5

20

6

23

7

22

8

21

  1. Construct a time series plot.  What type of pattern exists?                       
  2. Develop a forecast for the next month using the averaging method.    
  3. Develop a forecast for the next month using the naïve last-value method.        
  4. Develop a forecast for the next month using a four-month moving average method.
  5. Use the Excel Functions SLOPE and INTERCEPT to write the linear regression prediction equation with Months as the independent variable and sales as the dependent variable.
  6. Use the prediction equation to estimate the number of sales in month 9.
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