Question

Asked Nov 11, 2019

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For the data set, perform exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.1 to determine the forecast for week 20.

week | Sales (1000s of gallons) |

1 | 17 |

2 | 21 |

3 | 19 |

4 | 23 |

5 | 18 |

6 | 16 |

7 | 20 |

8 | 18 |

9 | 22 |

10 | 20 |

11 | 15 |

12 | 22 |

13 | 31 |

14 | 34 |

15 | 31 |

16 | 33 |

17 | 28 |

18 | 32 |

19 | 30 |

Step 1

Given data and forecast for the following week is shown here

Step 2

Forecast formula

Ft+1 = Ft + α (At - Ft)

Assuming the forecast for week 1 is same as actual sales

F2 = F1 + α (A1 – F1) = 17 + 0.1 x 0 = 17

F3 = F2 + α (A2 – F2) = 17 + 0.1 x 4 = 17.4

F4 = F3 + α (A3 – F3) = 17.4 + 0.1 x 1.60 = 17.56

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