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Asked Jan 12, 2020

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Hurricanes. In Exercises 5–8, assume that the Poisson distribution applies; assume that the mean number of Atlantic hurricanes in the United States is 6.1 per year, as in Example 1; and proceed to find the indicated probability.

Hurricanes

a. Find the probability that in a year, there will be 7 hurricanes.

b. In a 55-year period, how many years are expected to have 7 hurricanes?

c. How does the result from part (b) compare to the recent period of 55 years in which 7 years had 7 hurricanes? Does the Poisson distribution work well here?

Step 1

a)

Define the random variable *x* as the number of hurricanes in a year. Here, the number of hurricanes is random and each hurricane is independent of the other. Also, the occurrences (hurricanes) are uniformly distributed every year. Then, *x* follows Poisson distribution.

The Poisson distribution formula is,

Step 2

By applying the Poisson distribution,

Step 3

**b)**

From part (a), the probability to have 7 hurricanes in a year is 0.140.

For a 55-year ...

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