ltaneously choose the action Left or Right. The payoff matrix/table that follows shows the payoff each person will earn as a function of both of their choices. For example, the lower right cell shows that if Clancy chooses Right and Eileen chooses Right, Clancy will receive a payoff of 3 and Eileen will receive a payoff of 6. Eileen Left Right
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Solving for dominant strategies and the Nash equilibrium
Eileen | |||
Left | Right | ||
Clancy | Left | 5, 6 | 5, 5 |
Right | 4, 2 | 3, 6 |
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- Suppose you currently have a portfolio of three stocks, A, B, and C. You own 500 shares of A, 300 of B, and 1000 of C. The current share prices are 42.76, 81.33, and, 58.22, respectively. You plan to hold this portfolio for at least a year. During the coming year, economists have predicted that the national economy will be awful, stable, or great with probabilities 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3. Given the state of the economy, the returns (one-year percentage changes) of the three stocks are independent and normally distributed. However, the means and standard deviations of these returns depend on the state of the economy, as indicated in the file P11_23.xlsx. a. Use @RISK to simulate the value of the portfolio and the portfolio return in the next year. How likely is it that you will have a negative return? How likely is it that you will have a return of at least 25%? b. Suppose you had a crystal ball where you could predict the state of the economy with certainty. The stock returns would still be uncertain, but you would know whether your means and standard deviations come from row 6, 7, or 8 of the P11_23.xlsx file. If you learn, with certainty, that the economy is going to be great in the next year, run the appropriate simulation to answer the same questions as in part a. Repeat this if you learn that the economy is going to be awful. How do these results compare with those in part a?An investor has a certain amount of money available to invest now. Three alternative investments are available. The estimated profit in Kwacha of each investment under each economic condition are indicated in the following payoff table: Event Investment Selection A B C Economy declines 500 -2000 -7000 No charge 1000 2000 -1000 Economy Expand 2000 5000 20,000 Based on his own past experience, the investor assigns the following probabilities to each economic condition: ( ) ( ) ( ) Economy declines 0.30 No change 0.50 Economy expands 0.20PPP=== iv. Compute the expected opportunity loss (EOL) for each investment v. Explain the meaning of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) in this problem vi. Based on the results of (iii) and (iv), which investment would you choose? Why?An investor has a certain amount of money available to invest now. Three alternative investments are available. The estimated profit in Kwacha of each investment under each economic condition are indicated in the following payoff table: Event Investment Selection A B C Economy declines 500 -2000 -7000 No charge 1000 2000 -1000 Economy Expand 2000 5000 20,000 Based on his own past experience, the investor assigns the following probabilities to each economic condition: ( ) ( ) ( ) Economy declines 0.30 No change 0.50 Economy expands 0.20PPP=== i. Determine the optimal action based on the maximax criterion ii. Determine the optimal action based on the maximin criterion iii. Compute the expected monetary value (EMV) for each investment
- Brandon is considering expansion of a store. If he expands, the interest rate at which he borrows the money is the important factor. He is not sure what kind of interest rate will be obtained. If he does not expand, the only factor influencing the outcome is future economy. The following table summarizes the situation: Probabilities Payoff Expand Large Favorable interest .3 $60k Neutral interest .5 $30k Unfavorable interest .2 ‑$70k Expand Small Favorable interest .3 $50k Neutral interest .5 $30k Unfavorable interest .2 ‑$30k Do not expand…An investor has a certain amount of money available to invest now. Three alternative investments are available. The estimated profits, in Kwacha, of each investment under each economic condition are indicated in the following payoff table: Event Investment selection A B C Economy declines 500 -2000 -7000 No charge 1000 2000 -1000 Economy Expand 2000 5000 20,000 Based on his own past experience, the investor assigns the following probabilities to each economic condition: P (Economy declines) = 0.30 P (No Change) = 0.50 P (Economy expands) = 0.20 i. Compute the coefficient of variation for each investment. ii. Compute the return-to-risk ratio (RTRR) for each investment. iii. Based on (i) and (ii), what investment would you choose? Why?Which investment should Warren make under each of the following criteria? a. Maximax criterion. b. Maximin criterion. c. Maximum likelihood criterion. d. Bayes’ decision rule. e. The investor decides that Bayes’ decision rule is his most reliable decision criterion. He believes that 0.1 is just about right as the prior probability of an improving economy, but is quite uncertain about how to split the remaining probabilities between a stable economy and a worsening economy. Therefore, he now wishes to do some sort of sensitivity analysis with respect to these latter two prior probabilities. If he still wants to choose the alternative from the Bayes’ decision rule (part d): e1. How much would be the maximum amount of the prior probability of a stable economy? e2. How much would be the minimum amount of the prior probability of a worsening economy?
- A company is considering a new product launch. There is a 0.6 chance that demand for the product will be strong and a 0.4 chance that demand will be weak. Two strategies for the launch are possible: 1 has high promotion costs and a net cash outflow of K120 000 if demand proves to be strong, and if demand proves weak a net cash outflow of (K30 000) will result. Strategy 2 has low promotion costs and if demand is strong will generate a cash inflow of only K80 000 but with weak demand a net cash inflow of K20 000. Draw a decision tree and advise which course of action generates the greatest expected profit. What is the maximum amount that should be paid for market research to determine with certainty whether demand will be strong or weak?The below table shows a payoff matrix that represents the interaction between two friends, Amanda and Bernardo. They are deciding which city to visit together. Bernardo Inverness Perth Amanda Inverness 7, 4 2.5, 1 Perth 1, 2.5 3, 9 Select all the correct answers. Group of answer choices Amanda's preference is to visit Inverness If this is a sequential game and Bernardo can move first, Amanda's preference is to visit Perth. There are two Nash equilibria in this game If this is a one-shot, simultaneous game, then both players would choose Perth since it is the highest total payoffAn investor has a certain amount of money available to invest now. Three alternative investmentsare available. The estimated profit in Kwacha of each investment under each economic conditionare indicated in the following payoff table:Event Investment SelectionA B CEconomy declines 500 -2000 -7000No charge 1000 2000 -1000Economy Expand 2000 5000 20,000Based on his own past experience, the investor assigns the following probabilities to eacheconomic condition:( )( )( )Economy declines 0.30No change 0.50Economy expands 0.20PPP===i. Determine the optimal action based on the maximax criterion ii. Determine the optimal action based on the maximin criterion iii. Compute the expected monetary value (EMV) for each investment iv. Compute the expected opportunity loss (EOL) for each investment v. Explain the meaning of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) in thisproblem vi. Based on the results of (iii) and (iv), which investment would you choose?vii. Compute the coefficient of…
- Consider a buying firm and a supplier negotiating terms for a contract. Suppose the Marginal Benefit to the buying firm of additional contract provisions in a contract (x) to the firm is: MB = 20,000 – 400x. Suppose the Marginal Cost to the buying firm of additional contract provision to the firm is: MC = 100x. What is the optimal number of contract provisions? Reconsider the previous question. If the maximum value (or price) of the contract that the buying firm is willing to pay for is $3,000, what would you expect the firm to do? a) Use the spot market b) Vertically integrate c) Continue to contract d) engage in holdupAn investor is considering investing in stocks, real estate, or bonds economic conditions. Suppose that the probabilities for good, stable and poor conditions are 0.2, 0.4 and … (figure it out), respectively. Table 1 shows the payoff returns for the investor’s decision situation. Table 1: Investment returns Economic Conditions Investment Good Stable Poor Stocks R5 000 R7 000 R3 000 Real estate -R2 000 R10 000 R6 000 Bonds R4 000 R4 000 R4 000 Assuming the probabilities of the occurrence of the state of nature are unknown, what will be the best investment alternative; a) If the decision maker is pessimistic about the future state, (3) b) If the decision maker strikes a compromise between the maximin and maximax, assuming the coefficient of pessimism is 0.2. (4) c) If the decision is based on opportunistic loss. (6) d) If we use the equally likelihood criterionMany decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions,1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utility.