* 00 Miles is considering buying a new pickup truck for his lawn service firm. The economy in town seems to be growing, and he is wondering whether he should opt for a subcompact, compact, or full-size pickup truck. The smaller truck would have better fuel economy, but would sacrifice capacity and some durability. A friend at the Bureau of Economic Research told him that there is a 30% chance of lower gas prices in his area this year, a 20% chance of higher gas prices, and a 50% chance that gas prices will stay roughly unchanged. Based on this information, Miles has developed a decision table that indicates the profit amount he would end up with after a year for each combination of truck and gas prices. States of Nature Lower gas Gas prices Higher gas Alternatives prices unchanged prices Subcompact 19,000 000 Compact OGOʻST 000 Full size 000'9 Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2 MacBook Air 000 000 DD F7 08 F4 F5 6 %24 ) 9 | K. D. * 00 Compact 0000 Full size 000'9 Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2 Which type of truck should Miles select based on Maximum Likelihood Criterion? O Compact O Full size O None O Subcompact Next « Previous MacBook Air 110 F8 000 000 DD F2 F3 F4 F5 & 2$ 5. 9. R

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 30P
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Question
* 00
Miles is considering buying a new pickup truck for his lawn service firm. The economy in town seems to
be growing, and he is wondering whether he should opt for a subcompact, compact, or full-size pickup
truck. The smaller truck would have better fuel economy, but would sacrifice capacity and some
durability. A friend at the Bureau of Economic Research told him that there is a 30% chance of lower
gas prices in his area this year, a 20% chance of higher gas prices, and a 50% chance that gas prices will
stay roughly unchanged.
Based on this information, Miles has developed a decision table that indicates the profit amount he
would end up with after a year for each combination of truck and gas prices.
States of Nature
Lower gas
Gas prices
Higher gas
Alternatives
prices
unchanged
prices
Subcompact
19,000
000
Compact
OGOʻST
000
Full size
000'9
Probability
0.3
0.5
0.2
MacBook Air
000
000
DD
F7
08
F4
F5
6
%24
)
9
|
K.
D.
Transcribed Image Text:* 00 Miles is considering buying a new pickup truck for his lawn service firm. The economy in town seems to be growing, and he is wondering whether he should opt for a subcompact, compact, or full-size pickup truck. The smaller truck would have better fuel economy, but would sacrifice capacity and some durability. A friend at the Bureau of Economic Research told him that there is a 30% chance of lower gas prices in his area this year, a 20% chance of higher gas prices, and a 50% chance that gas prices will stay roughly unchanged. Based on this information, Miles has developed a decision table that indicates the profit amount he would end up with after a year for each combination of truck and gas prices. States of Nature Lower gas Gas prices Higher gas Alternatives prices unchanged prices Subcompact 19,000 000 Compact OGOʻST 000 Full size 000'9 Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2 MacBook Air 000 000 DD F7 08 F4 F5 6 %24 ) 9 | K. D.
* 00
Compact
0000
Full size
000'9
Probability
0.3
0.5
0.2
Which type of truck should Miles select based on Maximum Likelihood Criterion?
O Compact
O Full size
O None
O Subcompact
Next
« Previous
MacBook Air
110
F8
000
000
DD
F2
F3
F4
F5
&
2$
5.
9.
R
Transcribed Image Text:* 00 Compact 0000 Full size 000'9 Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2 Which type of truck should Miles select based on Maximum Likelihood Criterion? O Compact O Full size O None O Subcompact Next « Previous MacBook Air 110 F8 000 000 DD F2 F3 F4 F5 & 2$ 5. 9. R
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