Question

Perception and Reality In a presidential election, 611 randomly selected voters were surveyed, and 308 of them said that they voted for the winning candidate (based on data from ICR Survey Research Group). The actual percentage of votes for the winning candidate was 43%. Assume that 43% of voters actually did vote for the winning candidate, and assume that 611 voters are randomly selected.

a. Use the range rule of thumb to identify the limits separating values that are significantly low and those that are significantly high. Based on the results, is the 308 voters who said that they voted for the winner significantly high?

b. Find the probability of exactly 308 voters who actually voted for the winner.

c. Find the probability of 308 or more voters who actually voted for the winner.

d. Which probability is relevant for determining whether the value of 308 voters is significantly high: the probability from part (b) or part (c)? Based on the relevant probability, is the result of 308 voters who said that they voted for the winner significantly high?

e. What is an important observation about the survey results?

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