Phillip Witt, president of Witt Input Devices, wishesto create a portfolio of local suppliers for his new line of keyboards.As the suppliers all reside in a location prone to hurricanes,tornadoes, flooding, and earthquakes, Phillip believes thatthe probability in any year of a " super-event" that might shutdown all suppliers at the same time for at least 2 weeks is 3%.Such a total shutdown would cost the company approximately$400,000. He estimates the " unique-event" risk for any of thesuppliers to be 5%. Assuming that the marginal cost of managingan additional supplier is $15,000 per year, how many suppliersshould Witt Input Devices use? Assume that up to three nearlyidentical local suppliers are available.

Phillip Witt, president of Witt Input Devices, wishesto create a portfolio of local suppliers for his new line of keyboards.As the suppliers all reside in a location prone to hurricanes,tornadoes, flooding, and earthquakes, Phillip believes thatthe probability in any year of a " super-event" that might shutdown all suppliers at the same time for at least 2 weeks is 3%.Such a total shutdown would cost the company approximately$400,000. He estimates the " unique-event" risk for any of thesuppliers to be 5%. Assuming that the marginal cost of managingan additional supplier is $15,000 per year, how many suppliersshould Witt Input Devices use? Assume that up to three nearlyidentical local suppliers are available.

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.4: The Precision Tree Add-in

Problem 9P

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
Assume the demand for a companys drug Wozac during the current year is 50,000, and assume demand will grow at 5% a year. If the company builds a plant that can produce x units of Wozac per year, it will cost 16x. Each unit of Wozac is sold for 3. Each unit of Wozac produced incurs a variable production cost of 0.20. It costs 0.40 per year to operate a unit of capacity. Determine how large a Wozac plant the company should build to maximize its expected profit over the next 10 years.
The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the Canadian salmon industry. Each year the salmon spawn during a 24-hour period and must be canned immediately. Tinkan has the following agreement with the salmon industry. The company can deliver as many cans as it chooses. Then the salmon are caught. For each can by which Tinkan falls short of the salmon industrys needs, the company pays the industry a 2 penalty. Cans cost Tinkan 1 to produce and are sold by Tinkan for 2 per can. If any cans are left over, they are returned to Tinkan and the company reimburses the industry 2 for each extra can. These extra cans are put in storage for next year. Each year a can is held in storage, a carrying cost equal to 20% of the cans production cost is incurred. It is well known that the number of salmon harvested during a year is strongly related to the number of salmon harvested the previous year. In fact, using past data, Tinkan estimates that the harvest size in year t, Ht (measured in the number of cans required), is related to the harvest size in the previous year, Ht1, by the equation Ht = Ht1et where et is normally distributed with mean 1.02 and standard deviation 0.10. Tinkan plans to use the following production strategy. For some value of x, it produces enough cans at the beginning of year t to bring its inventory up to x+Ht, where Ht is the predicted harvest size in year t. Then it delivers these cans to the salmon industry. For example, if it uses x = 100,000, the predicted harvest size is 500,000 cans, and 80,000 cans are already in inventory, then Tinkan produces and delivers 520,000 cans. Given that the harvest size for the previous year was 550,000 cans, use simulation to help Tinkan develop a production strategy that maximizes its expected profit over the next 20 years. Assume that the company begins year 1 with an initial inventory of 300,000 cans.
Phillip Witt, president of Witt Input Devices, wishes to create a portfolio of local suppliers for his new line of keyboards. As the suppliers all reside in a location prone to hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, and earthquakes, Phillip believes that the probability in any year of a "super-event" that might shut down all suppliers at the same time at least 2 weeks is 3%. Such a total shutdown would cost the company approximately $480,000. He estimates the "unique-event" risk for any of the suppliers to be 5%. Assuming that the marginal cost of managing an additional supplier is $16,000 per year, how many suppliers should Witt Input Devices use? Assume that up to three nearly identical local suppliers are available. Find the EMV for alternatives using 1, 2, or 3 suppliers. EMV(1)=$54,40054,400 (Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.) EMV(2)= ? $ (Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.) EMV(3)= ? $ (Enter your response…
Phillip Witt, president of Witt Input Devices, wishes to create a portfolio of local suppliers for his new line of keyboards. Suppose that Phillip is willing to use one local supplier and up to two more located in other territories within the country. This would reduce the probability of a "super-event" that might shut down all suppliers at the same time at least 2 weeks to 0.5%, but due to increased distance the annual costs for managing each of the distant suppliers would be $25,000 (still $15 comma 000 for the local supplier). A total shutdown would cost the company approximately $400,000. He estimates the "unique-event" risk for any of the suppliers to be 5%. Assuming that the local supplier would be the first one chosen, how many suppliers should Witt Input Devices use? Find the EMV for alternatives using 1, 2, or 3 suppliers. EMV(1)equals=$ (Enter your response rounded to the nearest wholenumber.) EMV(2)equals=$ (Enter your response rounded to the nearest…
Phillip Witt, president of Witt Input Devices, wishes to create a portfolio of local suppliers for his new line of keyboards. He has a total of 3 suppliers available. Philip believes that the probability of a super-event that might shut down all suppliers at the same time to be 3.0%. Such a shutdown would cost company 5 million dollars. He estimates the unique event risk for any supplier to be 5.0 %. Assuming that managing an additional supplier is 1 thousand dollars, how many suppliers should Philip use? Assume that suppliers are identical. (Only enter a number without any units.
A well-known plastic mould and die manufacturer in Toronto intends to expand internationally in anticipation of strong demand and expansion in the plastic die manufacturing sector. use the table beneath. Using the Maximax, Maximin, and equally likely conditions, assist the business in making the best option in an unclear situation. 0.5 for a highly favourable condition, 0.2 for an average demand, and 0.3 for an unfavourable state are the probabilities linked with the states of nature.a) Choose the course of action that will give Andrew the highest predicted monetary value (EMV).b) Determine the anticipated value of perfect information (EVPI).
1. Kirsten is trying to decide where to go for her well-earned vacation. She would like to camp, but if the weather is bad, she will have to go to a motel. Given the costs and probabilities of bad weather given below, which destination should she choose? Camping cost Motel cost Probability of bad weather Nevada $21.2 $80.9 0.2 Oregon $15.9 $84.6 0.4 California $30 $95 0.1 a. California, because its EMV = $33.14 b. Nevada, because its EMV = $33.14 c. California, because its EMV = $36.5 d. Any of the 3 choices. e. Oregon, because its EMV = $43.38 f. Nevada, because its EMV = $43.38 g. None of the 3 choices. h. Oregon, because its EMV is $36.50.
Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for itssupplier portfolio. Option 1 uses two local suppliers. Each has a “unique-event” risk of 5%, and the probability of a “super-event” that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be 1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries.Each has a “unique-event” risk of 13%, and the probability of a “super-event” that would disable both at the same time is esti-mated to be 0.2%. a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disruptedusing option 1?b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disruptedusing option 2?c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?
A retailer is deciding how many units of a certain product to stock. The historical probability distribution of sales for this product is 0 units, 0.2; 1 unit, 0.3; 2 units, 0.4, and 3 units, 0.1. The product costs $11 per unit and sells for $25 per unit. What is the conditional value for the decision alternative "Stock 3" and state of nature "Sell 1"?