
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Prior probabilities are sometimes called likelihoods, the probabilities that are influenced by information about the outcome of an earlier uncertainty.
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- The Cook County Lumber Co. has three sawmills that produce boards of different lengths. The following table is a joint frequency distribution based on a random sample of 1,000 boards selected from the lumber inventory. Board Length Sawmill 8ft 10ft 12ft 14ft A 140 100 80 14 B 250 20 100 50 C 160 50 16 20 Based on these data, if a board is selected that is 12 feet long, the probability that it was made at sawmill A is: 0.20 0.24 0.08 0.41arrow_forwardA toy manufacturer wants to see how long, on average, a new toy captures children's attention. He tests 17 children selected at random and finds that their mean attention span is 27 minutes with a standard deviation of 5 minutes. If we assume that attention spans are normally distributed, find a 90% confidence interval for the mean attention span of children playing with this new toy. Give the lower limit and upper limit of the 90% confidence interval. Carry your intermediate computations to at least three decimal places. Round your answers to one decimal place. (If necessary, consult a list of formulas.) Lower limit: Upper limit:arrow_forwardFill in the P(X=x) values to give a legitimate probability distribution for the discrete random variable X, whose possible values are -3, 0, 4, 5, and 6. Value x of X P (X = x) -3 0 0.23 5 0.17 6 0.30arrow_forward
- The company is considering whether or not they should drill the land. The cost of drilling is estimated to be $4 million. The company believes there are three possible findings after drilling the land: dry, wet and gushing. The probabilities for these outcomes are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2, respectively. If the land is found to be dry, it obviously offers no profit. If the land is wet, it brings a potential profit of $10 million. If gushing, the potential profit from the land is $30 million. Answer the following questions, Q1 and Q2. Q1: Draw a decision tree to show the decision for this company based on the EMV criterion. Nodes and arcs are provided below and you can make more of them by using "copy" and "paste" Q2: The company has the option of using some new technology and equipment combined with seismic survey data to learn the presence of oil (dry, wet or gushing) before drilling the land. However, it requires $2.3 million investment for the technology, equipment, and required analysis. Is…arrow_forwardTo collect data on two categorical variables, construct two questions that you would ask consumers of your sporting goods store. (The two questions will become the two variables in which you would conduct a Chi-Square Test for Independence.) Construct a contingency table that you will use to store the results of the data collected. (Utilize the Tables tool to create this table in your response box. Look for the table icon which is located on the far left of all icons at the top of your response box.) What method of data collection will you utilize? In other words, how will you get consumers to answer these questions? Will this method create any possible sampling error or collection bias?arrow_forwardWhich experimental method involves randomly assigning participants to one of two groups in order to collect data and compare the performance of two distinct options? This method has been emphasized in various tech companies (e.g., Amazon, Netflix, Rent the Runway), and it is an useful method for uncovering causality between variables. Most tech companies heavily use this method for their data analytics process. Multivariate testing Bucket testing Web usability testing A/B testing Conjoint analysisarrow_forward
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