Probability plot A bridge will be built over the Meherrin River near the site that the discharge measurements were taken for the log-normal probability plot below. The service life of the bridge is 40 years. If a design discharge of 23,000 cfs is used for the bridge: (a) what is the probability that the bridge will be flooded in any one year? (b) What is the probability that the bridge will be flooded at least once over its service life? (Note: just focus on the “theoretical line” in the plot)

Structural Analysis
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337630931
Author:KASSIMALI, Aslam.
Publisher:KASSIMALI, Aslam.
Chapter2: Loads On Structures
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Probability plot

A bridge will be built over the Meherrin River near the site that the discharge measurements were
taken for the log-normal probability plot below. The service life of the bridge is 40 years. If a design
discharge of 23,000 cfs is used for the bridge: (a) what is the probability that the bridge will be flooded
in any one year? (b) What is the probability that the bridge will be flooded at least once over its service
life? (Note: just focus on the “theoretical line” in the plot)

Discharge (cfs)
50,000
20,000
10,000
5,000
2,000
1,000
99.99 99.9 99.8
99 98
1.01
95 90
Share
00
1.11
Exceedence Probability (%)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20
1.25
feate
conºcorogo gooo
10 5 2 1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.01
2
Return Period (years)
5 10
Observed points
■ Theoretical points
Theoretical line
-Confidence limits
25 50 100 200
1000
N
198765
3
Transcribed Image Text:Discharge (cfs) 50,000 20,000 10,000 5,000 2,000 1,000 99.99 99.9 99.8 99 98 1.01 95 90 Share 00 1.11 Exceedence Probability (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1.25 feate conºcorogo gooo 10 5 2 1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.01 2 Return Period (years) 5 10 Observed points ■ Theoretical points Theoretical line -Confidence limits 25 50 100 200 1000 N 198765 3
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