Question

Asked Dec 30, 2019

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Subjective Probability Estimate the probability that the next time you turn on a light switch, you discover that a bulb does work.

Step 1

It is found that the bulb works when the light switch is on.

The answer may vary based on the working of the bulb when the light switch is on.

Step 2

In the absence of data, the number of times the light switch is on and the bulb’s working capacity is considered as a subjective estimate. Experience suggests that the probability is most likely small as there is less number of times the bulb does n...

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