Suppose an oil company is thinking of buying some land for $10,000,000. There is a 60%60% chance of economic growth and a 40%40% chance of recession. The probability of discovering oil is 44%44% when there is economic growth and 32%32% when there is a recession. If there is economic growth and the oil company discovers oil, the value of the land will triple. If they do not discover oil, the value of the land will decrease by 10%.10%. If there is a recession and the company discovers oil, the value of the land will increase by 50%.50%. If they do not discover oil, the land will decrease in value by 75%.75%. What is the expected value of the investment? Give your answer to the nearest dollar. Avoid rounding within calculations. $$     Select the correct interpretation of the expected value. The expected value represents what the actual investment value will be for this land purchase of $10,000,000. The company should make the investment because the expected value predicts a profitable investment value. The expected value represents the mean investment value for a $10,000,000 land purchase. The oil company should invest in the land because, on average, the investment is profitable. The expected value provides the total cost of investing in the land. The oil company should not invest in the land because the investment costs will exceed $10,000,000. The expected value is the mean investment value for the land purchase of $10,000,000. The oil company should not invest in the land because the expected value indicates an average loss in investment. The expected value represents the average profit expected for a land purchase of $10,000,000. Thus, the company should invest in the land because the expected value is greater than zero.

Holt Mcdougal Larson Pre-algebra: Student Edition 2012
1st Edition
ISBN:9780547587776
Author:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Publisher:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Chapter11: Data Analysis And Probability
Section11.8: Probabilities Of Disjoint And Overlapping Events
Problem 2C
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Suppose an oil company is thinking of buying some land for $10,000,000. There is a 60%60% chance of economic growth and a 40%40% chance of recession. The probability of discovering oil is 44%44% when there is economic growth and 32%32% when there is a recession. If there is economic growth and the oil company discovers oil, the value of the land will triple. If they do not discover oil, the value of the land will decrease by 10%.10%. If there is a recession and the company discovers oil, the value of the land will increase by 50%.50%. If they do not discover oil, the land will decrease in value by 75%.75%.

What is the expected value of the investment? Give your answer to the nearest dollar. Avoid rounding within calculations.

$$
 
 
Select the correct interpretation of the expected value.
The expected value represents what the actual investment value will be for this land purchase of $10,000,000. The company should make the investment because the expected value predicts a profitable investment value.
The expected value represents the mean investment value for a $10,000,000 land purchase. The oil company should invest in the land because, on average, the investment is profitable.
The expected value provides the total cost of investing in the land. The oil company should not invest in the land because the investment costs will exceed $10,000,000.
The expected value is the mean investment value for the land purchase of $10,000,000. The oil company should not invest in the land because the expected value indicates an average loss in investment.
The expected value represents the average profit expected for a land purchase of $10,000,000. Thus, the company should invest in the land because the expected value is greater than zero.
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