Suppose that 5 percent of the population of a certain town contracted the COVID19 virus. There is a medical diagnostic test for detecting the disease. But the test is not very accurate. Historical evidence shows that if a person has the virus, the probability that her/his test result will be positive is 0.9. However, the probability is 0.15 that the test result will be positive for a person who does not have the virus. 1. Define clearly the events before you answer the following questions. 2. For a person selected randomly from the town, the test result was positive. What is the probability that the person has the Corona virus? 3. What is the difference between the probability found in the previous question and the 5%? How do we call the two probabilities? 4. For a person selected randomly from the town, the test result was negative. What is the probability that the person has the Corona virus? 5. For a person selected randomly from the town, the test result was positive. What is the probability that the person does not have the Corona virus?
Addition Rule of Probability
It simply refers to the likelihood of an event taking place whenever the occurrence of an event is uncertain. The probability of a single event can be calculated by dividing the number of successful trials of that event by the total number of trials.
Expected Value
When a large number of trials are performed for any random variable ‘X’, the predicted result is most likely the mean of all the outcomes for the random variable and it is known as expected value also known as expectation. The expected value, also known as the expectation, is denoted by: E(X).
Probability Distributions
Understanding probability is necessary to know the probability distributions. In statistics, probability is how the uncertainty of an event is measured. This event can be anything. The most common examples include tossing a coin, rolling a die, or choosing a card. Each of these events has multiple possibilities. Every such possibility is measured with the help of probability. To be more precise, the probability is used for calculating the occurrence of events that may or may not happen. Probability does not give sure results. Unless the probability of any event is 1, the different outcomes may or may not happen in real life, regardless of how less or how more their probability is.
Basic Probability
The simple definition of probability it is a chance of the occurrence of an event. It is defined in numerical form and the probability value is between 0 to 1. The probability value 0 indicates that there is no chance of that event occurring and the probability value 1 indicates that the event will occur. Sum of the probability value must be 1. The probability value is never a negative number. If it happens, then recheck the calculation.
Suppose that 5 percent of the population of a certain town contracted the COVID19 virus. There is a medical diagnostic test for detecting the disease. But the test is not very accurate. Historical evidence shows that if a person has the virus, the
1. Define clearly the
2. For a person selected randomly from the town, the test result was positive. What is the probability that the person has the Corona virus?
3. What is the difference between the probability found in the previous question and the 5%? How do we call the two probabilities?
4. For a person selected randomly from the town, the test result was negative. What is the probability that the person has the Corona virus?
5. For a person selected randomly from the town, the test result was positive. What is the probability that the person does not have the Corona virus?
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