Suppose that as the economy moves through a business cycle, risk premiums also change. For example, in a recession, when people are concerned about their jobs, risk tolerance might be lower and risk premiums might be higher. In a booming economy, tolerance for risk might be higher and premiums lower.a. Would a predictably shifting risk premium such as described here be a violation of the efficient market hypothesis?b. How might a cycle of increasing and decreasing risk premiums create an appearance that stock prices “overreact,” first falling excessively and then seeming to recover?

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Market Efficiency

Market efficiency refers to the market's ability to provide investors with all available information about investment options for buying and selling securities. Market efficiency reflects the true value of securities without undervaluing or overvaluing them. When the quality and quantity of information increase, the market becomes more efficient, allowing it to reduce arbitrage and obtain higher market returns from investment. In a well-functioning market, everyone receives all information completely and immediately at no cost. It opens up a plethora of opportunities for investors to access various investment options.