The consulting agency begins collecting data on actual population demand utilization. The first year s data is: Period Demand Period Demand March 2020 31,550 September 2020 41,482 April 2020 32,125 October 2020 38,348 May 2020 35,700 November 2020 34,722 June 2020 40,620 December 2020 36,190 July 2020 42,810 January 2021 38,450 August 2020 44,230 February 2021 33,330 What is the forecast demand for March 2021 considering trend and seasonality?
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The consulting agency begins collecting data on actual population demand utilization. The first year s data is:
| Period | Demand | Period | Demand |
| March 2020 | 31,550 | September 2020 | 41,482 |
| April 2020 | 32,125 | October 2020 | 38,348 |
| May 2020 | 35,700 | November 2020 | 34,722 |
| June 2020 | 40,620 | December 2020 | 36,190 |
| July 2020 | 42,810 | January 2021 | 38,450 |
| August 2020 | 44,230 | February 2021 | 33,330 |
What is the
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38,243 |
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40,125 |
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32,207 |
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35,311 |
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- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
- At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.Lori Cook has developed the following forecasting modaly = 36 + 4.3xwhere y = demand for Kool Air conditioners and X= the outside temperature (F)° a) Forecast demand for the Kool Air when the temperature is 70° F.b) What is demand when the temperature is 80° F?c) What is demand when the temperature is 90° F?Dave F letcher, the general manager of NorthCarolina Engineering Corporation (NCEC), thinks that his firm'sengineering services contracted to highway construction firms aredirectly rela ted to the volume of highway construction businesscontracted with companies in his geographic area. He wondersif thjs is really so, and if it is, can this information help him planhjs operations better by forecasting the quantity of his engineeringservices required by construction firms in each quarter of theyear? The following table presents the sales of his services andtotal amounts of contracts for hjghway construction over the pasteight quarters:…
- PROVER S.A., one of the companies that supplies PRECISIÓN S.A. with raw materials. has asked you to formulate an aggregate plan for them. The forecast demand of your customers for each period of the next planning horizon isMonth 1 2 3 4Demand 10000 13500 11200 12000 It is considered that each worker can produce 500 units/month in normal hours and 100 units/month in overtime. The company has 20 employees and due to the high level of training required, it cannot hire anyone and cannot subcontract part of the production to another company. There is no beginning inventory. The cost for salaries and benefits in regular time is $1,000 per worker, per month. Overtime is paid 50% more than regular time. The cost of firing someone is $2,000. It costs 6 cents per month to hold a unit in inventory. 8. Define, in the Excel provided, a feasible aggregate plan for this company. Define a plan Feasible, it does not have to be the best or the least cost. It simply has…The table below shows the sales of widgets (in units) over the past 5 years. Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.2, what is the forecast for next year? The initial forecast (for 5 years ago) was 1,200 units. Forecast: Time Sales 5 years ago 1,140 4 years ago 1,220 3 years ago 1,450 2 years ago 1,090 Last year 1,150 (Do not round intermediate calculations, round your final answer to the nearest whole number.)The following two demand sets are to be used to test two different basic exponential smoothingmodels. The first model uses 0.1, and the second uses 0.5. In both cases, the modelshould be initialized with a beginning forecast value of 50; that is, the ESF forecast for period 1made at the end of period 0 is 50 units. In each of the four cases (two models on two demandsets), compute the average forecast error and MAD. What do the results mean?Demand Set I Demand Set IIPeriod Demand Period Demand1 51 1772 46 2833 49 3904 55 4225 52 5106 47 6807 51 7168 48 8199 56 92710 51 10 7911 45 11 7312 52 12 8813 49 13 1514 48 14 2115 43 15 8516 46 16 2217 55 17 8818 53 18 7519 54 19 1420 49 20 16
- The number of plumbing repair jobs performed by Augur’s Plumbing Service during each month last year. Draw the scatter diagram. Now briefly explain which of the following patterns exist in this data and which do not: trend, cycle, seasonal. Cite evidence that supports your conclusion. Month Jobs January 112 February 105 March 89 April 96 May 97 June 101 July 105 August 107 September 99 October 92 November 91 December 89Flamingo Educational Services, a company located in the Tema metropolis, is a nationwide market leader in the publishing and distribution of textbooks for first and second cycle schools. Somehow, Flamingo does not use forecasts for production planning. Instead, the operations manager decides which books to produce and the batch size, based on orders and the amounts in inventory. The books that have the fewest amounts in inventory get the highest priority. Demand is uneven, and the company has experienced being overstocked on some items and out of others. Being under-stocked has occasionally created tensions with managers of the retail bookstores the company works with. Flamingo is on the verge of losing a lucrative contract with the Ghana Education Service over a complaint that the books produced over the last four months have defective binding as well as slight but noticeable variations in print quality and sizes of the finished books. Some staff members, however,…Forecasted Statements and Ratios Upton Computers makes bulk purchases of small computers, stocks them in conveniently located warehouses, ships them to its chain of retail stores, and has a staff to advise customers and help them set up their new computers. Upton's balance sheet as of December 31, 2019, is shown here (millions of dollars): Cash $ 3.5 Accounts payable $ 9.0 Receivables 26.0 Notes payable 18.0 Inventories 58.0 Line of credit 0 Total current assets $ 87.5 Accruals 8.5 Net fixed assets 35.0 Total current liabilities $ 35.5 Mortgage loan 6.0 Common stock 15.0 Retained earnings 66.0 Total assets $122.5 Total liabilities and equity $122.5 Sales for 2019 were $275 million and net income for the year was $8.25 million, so the firm's profit margin was 3.0%. Upton paid dividends of $3.3 million to common stockholders, so its payout ratio was 40%. Its tax rate was 25%, and it operated at full capacity. Assume that all assets/sales ratios,…
