The Decision Variables in a What If analysis provide the limitations for each variable.TrueFalse

A what-if analysis is a simulation technique that is often used in business and engineering.

Answered: The Decision Variables in a What If…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.5: Multistage Decision Problems

Problem 22P: The model in Example 9.3 has only two market outcomes, good and bad, and two corresponding...

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The model in Example 9.3 has only two market outcomes, good and bad, and two corresponding predictions, good and bad. Modify the decision tree by allowing three outcomes and three predictions: good, fair, and bad. You can change the inputs to the model (monetary values and probabilities) in any reasonable way you like. Then you will also have to modify the Bayes rule calculations. You can decide whether it is easier to modify the existing tree or start from scratch with a new tree.
Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
1. Discuss the process you would employ to develop a suitable balanced scorecard for a tourist site organization and give examples of measures that would be incorporated within it. 2. Discuss how break even analysis can aid management in decision-making. 3. Discuss the practical difficulties associated with the use of breakeven analysis by managers in decision-making.
Select the least accurate statement. A) The expected monetary value (EMV) criterion represents the long-run average of uncertain outcomes, so it should only be used for recurring decisions. b) For each possible decision and each possible outcome, the payoff table lists the associated monetary value. c)The certainty equivalent is the certain dollar amount a risk-averse decision maker would accept in order to avoid a gamble altogether. D) For a risk-averse decision maker, the certainty equivalent is less than the expected monetary value (EMV).
A graph that helps decision makers use probability theory by showing the expected values of decisions in varying circumstances is known as a(n) a. Gantt chart b. probability curve c. bar graph d. decision tree In the rational model of decision making, evaluation of alternatives a. is the last step. b. should be as objective as possible. c. can only be done with the help of a decision tree. d. is the only step that requires subjective rationality
Which types of decisions should the decision trees be used to address for?
Please help with correct answers! Management Decision Systems (MDS) is a consulting company that specializes in the development of decision support systems. MDS has a four-person team working on a current project with a small company to set up a system that scrapes data from a collection of websites and then automatically generates a report for management on a daily basis. Time (Weeks) Activity Description ImmediatePredecessor Optimistic Most Probable Pessimistic A Report generation 2 9 13 B Web scraping 5 10 12 C Testing A, B 1 1 1 a) Based solely on the critical path, estimate the probability that the project will be complete within 12 weeks. (Round your answer to four decimal places.) b) Using all paths through the project network, estimate the probability that the project will be complete within 12 weeks. (Round your answer to four decimal places.)
What is the final value of the decision tree?
Formulating the problem, Defining the decision variables and constraints, developing a suitable model, Acquiring the Input Data, Solving the Model, Validating the Model, and Implementing the results are the steps generally use in decision-making. Yes or No?
Determine the type of business analytics for the following scenarios. A. Imagine you are a meteorologist. You have to foretell the weather for the next two weeks by analysing the data from the satellites. Here, you have to apply advanced statistical, information software, or operations research methods to identify predictive variables and build predictive models. Discuss in detail which type of business analytics will be suitable for this scenario.
Describe how decision analysis is similar to and different from simulation analysis and scenario analysis (at least 75 words)

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The Decision Variables in a What If analysis provide the limitations for each variable. O True O False