Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecasts and specify what procedure you would utilize. MonthActual Demand164267369465571673776877977108211831285Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4–12.(Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)MonthActual Demand466.667567.000668.333769.666873.333975.3331076.6661178.6661280.666 Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4–12 using weights of 0.30 (for the period t−1); 0.20 (for the period t−2), and 0.50 (for the period t−3). (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 1 decimal place.) MonthActual Demand466.7567.0668.3769.7873.3975.31076.71178.71280.7 e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4–12. (Do not roundintermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)Mean AbsoluteDeviationThree-month moving averageThree-month weighted moving averageSingle exponential smoothing forecastExponential smoothing with trende-2. Which forecasting method do you prefer?Single exponential smoothing forecastExponential smoothing with trend forecastThree-month weighted moving averageThree-month mnving ayerage c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2–12 using an initial forecast (F) of 63 and an a of 0.40. (Do notround intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)Single ExponentialSmoothing ForecastMonth234578101112d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2–12 using an initial trend forecast (T) of 1.60, aninitial exponential smoothing forecast (F) of 62, an a of 0.40, and a o of 0.30. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round youranswers to 3 decimal places.)Exponential Smoothingwith TrendMonth246.789101112.9,LO

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Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 42P: The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars)...

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Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecasts and specify what procedure you would utilize.

Month	Actual Demand
1	64
2	67
3	69
4	65
5	71
6	73
7	76
8	77
9	77
10	82
11	83
12	85

Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4–12.(Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

Month	Actual Demand
4	66.667
5	67.000
6	68.333
7	69.666
8	73.333
9	75.333
10	76.666
11	78.666
12	80.666

Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4–12 using weights of 0.30 (for the period t−1); 0.20 (for the period t−2), and 0.50 (for the period t−3). (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 1 decimal place.)

Month	Actual Demand
4	66.7
5	67.0
6	68.3
7	69.7
8	73.3
9	75.3
10	76.7
11	78.7
12	80.7

e-1. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4–12. (Do not round
intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)
Mean Absolute
Deviation
Three-month moving average
Three-month weighted moving average
Single exponential smoothing forecast
Exponential smoothing with trend
e-2. Which forecasting method do you prefer?
Single exponential smoothing forecast
Exponential smoothing with trend forecast
Three-month weighted moving average
Three-month mnving ayerage

c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2–12 using an initial forecast (F) of 63 and an a of 0.40. (Do not
round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)
Single Exponential
Smoothing Forecast
Month
2
3
4
5
7
8
10
11
12
d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2–12 using an initial trend forecast (T) of 1.60, an
initial exponential smoothing forecast (F) of 62, an a of 0.40, and a o of 0.30. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your
answers to 3 decimal places.)
Exponential Smoothing
with Trend
Month
2
4
6.
7
8
9
10
11
12.
9,
LO

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