
Concept explainers
Scholarship winner (ExH). You apply for a national scholarship along with 100,000 other students; 200 scholarships will be awarded. You call to inquire whether you are one of the winners. The absent-minded professor in charge of the program reports that the letters have just been sent out, but no list of all the winners is available; however, the professor recalls that you were selected. The professor correctly recalls information 90% of the time. Assuming that the scholarships are awarded randomly (not a completely ridiculous assumption), what is the probability that you won one?

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