Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Chapter 13, Problem 42P

The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions.

  1. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holt’s method with optimized smoothing constants.
  2. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
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Use Holt-Winter’s multiplicative method to create a seasonal model that minimizes the MSE for the data set. Use Solver to determine the optimal values of alpha, beta, and gamma. We can initialize these variables to 0.a. What are the optimal values of alpha, beta, and gamma?b. What are the forecasts for each of the next 6 months using this technique? Year Month Time Period COGS 1 1 1 21637   2 2 25506   3 3 26594   4 4 21933   5 5 23117   6 6 26979   7 7 28337   8 8 28926   9 9 25015   10 10 28196   11 11 24170   12 12 25004 2 1 13 24575   2 14 35848   3 15 35217   4 16 32759   5 17 36542   6 18 36109   7 19 40279   8 20 37816   9 21 36338   10 22 37814   11 23 39359   12 24 34151 3 1 25 39862   2 26 50664   3 27 48533   4 28 45382   5 29 43981   6 30 41276   7 31 44284   8 32 46920   9 33 47469   10 34 43187

Chapter 13 Solutions

Practical Management Science

Ch. 13.4 - Prob. 12PCh. 13.4 - A trucking company wants to predict the yearly...Ch. 13.4 - An antique collector believes that the price...Ch. 13.4 - Stock market analysts are continually looking for...Ch. 13.4 - Suppose that a regional express delivery service...Ch. 13.4 - The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana,...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_20.xlsx contains the monthly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_21.xlsx contains the weekly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S....Ch. 13.7 - You have been assigned to forecast the number of...Ch. 13.7 - Simple exponential smoothing with = 0.3 is being...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series...Ch. 13.7 - A version of simple exponential smoothing can be...Ch. 13 - Prob. 31PCh. 13 - Prob. 32PCh. 13 - Management of a home appliance store would like to...Ch. 13 - A small computer chip manufacturer wants to...Ch. 13 - The file P13_35.xlsx contains the amount of money...Ch. 13 - Prob. 36PCh. 13 - Prob. 37PCh. 13 - Prob. 39PCh. 13 - The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to...Ch. 13 - Prob. 41PCh. 13 - The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on...Ch. 13 - Prob. 43PCh. 13 - Prob. 44PCh. 13 - Prob. 45PCh. 13 - Prob. 46PCh. 13 - Prob. 49P
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