Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Videos
Textbook Question
Chapter 13.3, Problem 3P
The file P13_03.xlsx contains monthly data on production levels and production costs during a four-year period for a company that produces a single product. Use simple regression on all of the data to see how Total Cost is related to Units Produced. Use the resulting equation to predict total cost in month 49, given that the proposed production level for that month is 450 units. Do you see anything wrong with the analysis? How should you modify your analysis if your main task is to find an equation useful for predicting future costs, and you know that the company installed new machinery at the end of month 18? Write a concise memo to management that describes your findings.
Expert Solution & Answer
Want to see the full answer?
Check out a sample textbook solution
Students have asked these similar questions
The file P02_26.xlsx lists sales (in millions of dollars) of Dell Computer during the period 1987–1997 (where year 1 corresponds to 1987). a. Fit a power and an exponential trend curve to these data. Which fits the data better? b. Use your part a answer to predict 1999 sales for Dell. c. Use your part a answer to describe how the sales of Dell have grown from year to year. d. Search the Web for more recent Dell sales data. Then repeat the preceding parts using all of the data.
A golf club manufacturer is trying to determine how the price of a set of clubs affects the demand for clubs. The file P10_50.xlsx contains the price of a set of clubs and the monthly sales.
Assume the only factor influencing monthly sales is price. Fit the following three curves to these data: linear (Y = a + bX), exponential (Y = abX), and multiplicative (Y = aXb). Which equation fits the data best?
Interpret your best-fitting equation.
Using the best-fitting equation, predict sales during a month in which the price is $470.
File data:
Price
Demand
$400
20,000
$420
19,000
$440
17,000
$460
16,000
$500
14,000
$380
22,000
$290
31,000
$340
26,000
$220
41,000
$700
6,000
SOLVE STEP BY STEP IN DIGITAL FORMAT
A company that manufactures household appliances carries out its strategic planning with its main suppliers of raw materials. To do this, you must make a sales projection for the next month, since the prices you obtain depend on the volume that is manufactured. Historical sales data for the last 12 months of 20XX are given below in millions of dollars. 10.5, 9.4, 8.5, 9.8, 11.1, 9.2, 9.7, 10.3, 7.5, 8.7, 9.0, 9.1.
a. Lists the time series components present in the company's sales.
b. Forecast the first month of the year 20XY with the moving average technique with k= 2.
c. Forecast sales for the first month of the year 20XY using the simple average technique.
d. Write the strategies that the appliance manufacturer must implement with suppliers.
Chapter 13 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_01.xlsx contains the monthly number...Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of...Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_03.xlsx contains monthly data on...Ch. 13.3 - The file P13_04.xlsx lists the monthly sales for a...Ch. 13.3 - Management of a home appliance store wants to...Ch. 13.3 - Do the sales prices of houses in a given community...Ch. 13.3 - Prob. 7PCh. 13.3 - The management of a technology company is trying...Ch. 13.3 - Prob. 9PCh. 13.3 - Sometimes curvature in a scatterplot can be fit...
Ch. 13.4 - Prob. 12PCh. 13.4 - A trucking company wants to predict the yearly...Ch. 13.4 - An antique collector believes that the price...Ch. 13.4 - Stock market analysts are continually looking for...Ch. 13.4 - Suppose that a regional express delivery service...Ch. 13.4 - The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana,...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_20.xlsx contains the monthly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_21.xlsx contains the weekly sales of...Ch. 13.6 - The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S....Ch. 13.7 - You have been assigned to forecast the number of...Ch. 13.7 - Simple exponential smoothing with = 0.3 is being...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales...Ch. 13.7 - The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series...Ch. 13.7 - A version of simple exponential smoothing can be...Ch. 13 - Prob. 31PCh. 13 - Prob. 32PCh. 13 - Management of a home appliance store would like to...Ch. 13 - A small computer chip manufacturer wants to...Ch. 13 - The file P13_35.xlsx contains the amount of money...Ch. 13 - Prob. 36PCh. 13 - Prob. 37PCh. 13 - Prob. 39PCh. 13 - The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to...Ch. 13 - Prob. 41PCh. 13 - The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on...Ch. 13 - Prob. 43PCh. 13 - Prob. 44PCh. 13 - Prob. 45PCh. 13 - Prob. 46PCh. 13 - Prob. 49P
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- The file P13_04.xlsx lists the monthly sales for a company (in millions of dollars) for a 10-year period. a. Fit an exponential trend line to these data. b. By what percentage do you estimate that the company will grow each month? c. Why cant a high rate of exponential growth continue for a long time? d. Rather than an exponential curve, what type of curve might better represent the growth of a new technology?arrow_forwardThe file P13_20.xlsx contains the monthly sales of iPod cases at an electronics store for a two-year period. Use the moving averages method, with spans of your choice, to forecast sales for the next six months. Does this method appear to track sales well? If not, what might be the reason?arrow_forwardThe file P13_21.xlsx contains the weekly sales of rakes at a hardware store for a two-year period. Use the moving averages method, with spans of your choice, to forecast sales for the next 30 weeks. Does this method appear to track sales well? If not, what might be the reason?arrow_forward
- The file P14_01.xlsx contains data on 100 consumers who drink beer. Some of them prefer light beer, and others prefer regular beer. A major beer producer believes that the following variables might be useful in discriminating between these two groups: gender, marital status, annual income level, and age. a. Use logistic regression to classify the consumers on the basis of these explanatory variables. How successful is it? Which variables appear to be most important in the classification? b. Consider a new customer: Male, Married, Income 42,000, Age 47. Use the logistic regression equation to estimate the probability that this customer prefers Regular. How would you classify this person?arrow_forwardStock market analysts are continually looking for reliable predictors of stock prices. Consider the problem of modeling the price per share of electric utility stocks (Y). Two variables thought to influence this stock price are return on average equity (X1) and annual dividend rate (X2). The stock price, returns on equity, and dividend rates on a randomly selected day for 16 electric utility stocks are provided in the file P13_15.xlsx. Estimate a multiple regression equation using the given data. Interpret each of the estimated regression coefficients. Also, interpret the standard error of estimate and the R-square value for these data.arrow_forwardThe file P13_27.xlsx contains yearly data on the proportion of Americans under the age of 18 living below the poverty level. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Create a chart of the series with the forecasts superimposed from this optimal smoothing constant. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b? d. Write a short report to summarize your results. Considering the chart in part c, would you say the forecasts are good?arrow_forward
- Paraphrase this one. Analyze and elaborate in 120 words. Time series analysis is used for non-stationary data—things that are constantly fluctuating over time or are affected by time. Industries like finance, retail, and economics frequently use time series analysis because currency and sales are always changing. Stock market analysis is an excellent example of time series analysis in action, especially with automated trading algorithms. Likewise, time series analysis is ideal for forecasting weather changes, helping meteorologists predict everything from tomorrow’s weather report to future years of climate change. Examples of time series analysis in action include: Weather data Rainfall measurements Temperature readings Heart rate monitoring (EKG) Brain monitoring (EEG) Quarterly sales Stock prices Automated stock trading Industry forecasts Interest ratesarrow_forwardWhich of the following statements are correct? [Select multiple answers] Income gap ratio (IGR) is the total income needed to eliminate poverty relative to the available resources. Poverty gap ratio (PGR) is the total income needed to eliminate poverty divided by the total income in the economy. Total poverty gap (TPG) provides a comprehensive picture of poverty including the severity of poverty since it tells us the total money that is needed to bring everyone to the poverty line. The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) measures with values of alpha = {0,1,2} provide a comprehensive picture of poverty.arrow_forwardThis data sufficiency problem consists of a question and two statements, labeled (1) and (2), in which certain data are given. You have to decide whether the data given in the statements are sufficient for answering the question. Using the data given in the statements, plus your knowledge of mathematics and everyday facts (such as the number of days in July or the meaning of the word counterclockwise), you must indicate whether:- Statement (1) ALONE is sufficient, but statement (2) alone is not sufficient to answer the question asked.- Statement (2) ALONE is sufficient, but statement (1) alone is not sufficient to answer the question asked.- BOTH statements (1) and (2) TOGETHER are sufficient to answer the question asked, but NEITHER statement ALONE is sufficient to answer the question asked.- EACH statement ALONE is sufficient to answer the question asked.- Statements (1) and (2) TOGETHER are NOT sufficient to answer the question asked, and additional data specific to the problem are…arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Single Exponential Smoothing & Weighted Moving Average Time Series Forecasting; Author: Matt Macarty;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjETktmL4Kg;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY
Introduction to Forecasting - with Examples; Author: Dr. Bharatendra Rai;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98K7AG32qv8;License: Standard Youtube License