Statistics for Business & Economics, Revised (MindTap Course List)
12th Edition
ISBN: 9781285846323
Author: David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran
Publisher: South-Western College Pub
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Textbook Question
Chapter 17, Problem 51SE
Refer to the Costello Music Company time series in exercise 49.
- a. Deseasonalize the data and use the deseasonalized time series to identify the trend.
- b. Use the results of part (a) to develop a quarterly forecast for next year based on trend.
- c. Use the seasonal indexes developed in exercise 50 to adjust the forecasts developed in part (b) to account for the effect of season.
50. Refer to the Costello Music Company problem in exercise 49.
- a. Using time series decomposition, compute the seasonal indexes for the four quarters.
- b. When does Costello Music experience the largest seasonal effect? Does this result appear reasonable? Explain.
49. Consider the Costello Music Company problem in exercise 48. The quarterly sales data follow.
| Year | Quarter I | Quarter 2 | Quarter 3 | Quarter 4 | Total Yearly Sales |
| 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 3 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 34 |
| 4 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 50 |
| 5 | 18 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 76 |
- a. Use the following dummy variables to develop an estimated regression equation to account for any seasonal and linear trend effects in the data: Qtr1 = 1 if Quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if Quarter 2, 0 otherwise; and Qtr3 = 1 if Quarter 3, 0 otherwise.
- b. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year.
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1984
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1985
1546.67
1986
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1987
1938.83
1988
2168.57
1989
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1990
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1991
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1992
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1993
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1994
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1995
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1996
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1997
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1998
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1999
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2000
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2001
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2002
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2003
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2004
10783.01
2005
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2006
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2007
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2008
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2009
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Use the model forecast the closing value for 2015.Use α=0.7,β=0.3,and γ=0.4,as needed. F2015?
Use the following Sales Data to
a) Develop a 4-month moving average forecast, a forecast for January, and compute the MAD.
b)Develop 3-month moving average forecast, a forecast for January, and calculate a MAD.
c) Which model should be used in the future? Explain why this is your answer.
Month
Actual Shed Sales
January
10
February
12
March
13
April
16
May
19
June
23
July
26
August
30
September
28
October
18
November
16
December
14
Chapter 17 Solutions
Statistics for Business & Economics, Revised (MindTap Course List)
Ch. 17.2 - Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2...Ch. 17.2 - Refer to the time series data in exercise 1. Using...Ch. 17.2 - Exercises 1 and 2 used different forecasting...Ch. 17.2 - Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2...Ch. 17.3 - Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2...Ch. 17.3 - Consider the following time series data. Month 1 2...Ch. 17.3 - Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in...Ch. 17.3 - Refer again to the gasoline sales time series data...Ch. 17.3 - With the gasoline time series data from Table...Ch. 17.3 - With a smoothing constant of = .2, equation...
Ch. 17.3 - For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages...Ch. 17.3 - Corporate triple-A bond interest rates for 12...Ch. 17.3 - The values of Alabama building contracts (in ...Ch. 17.3 - The following time series shows the sales of a...Ch. 17.3 - Ten weeks of data on the Commodity Futures Index...Ch. 17.3 - The U.S. Census Bureau tracks the median price for...Ch. 17.4 - Consider the following time series data. a....Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 18ECh. 17.4 - Consider the following time series. a. Construct a...Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 20ECh. 17.4 - Prob. 21ECh. 17.4 - Prob. 22ECh. 17.4 - The president of a small manufacturing firm is...Ch. 17.4 - FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), a database...Ch. 17.4 - Automobile unit sales at B. J. Scott Motors, Inc.,...Ch. 17.4 - Giovanni Food Products produces and sells frozen...Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 27ECh. 17.5 - Consider the following time series. a. Construct a...Ch. 17.5 - Consider the following time series data. a....Ch. 17.5 - The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold)...Ch. 17.5 - Air pollution control specialists in southern...Ch. 17.5 - South Shore Construction builds permanent docks...Ch. 17.5 - Prob. 33ECh. 17.5 - Three years of monthly lawn-maintenance expenses...Ch. 17.6 - Consider the following time series data. a....Ch. 17.6 - Refer to exercise 35. a. Deseasonalize the time...Ch. 17.6 - The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold)...Ch. 17.6 - Three years of monthly lawn-maintenance expenses...Ch. 17.6 - Air pollution control specialists in southern...Ch. 17.6 - Electric power consumption is measured in...Ch. 17 - The weekly demand (in cases) for a particular...Ch. 17 - The following table reports the percentage of...Ch. 17 - United Dairies. Inc., supplies milk to several...Ch. 17 - Prob. 44SECh. 17 - Prob. 45SECh. 17 - The Mayfair Department Store in Davenport, Iowa,...Ch. 17 - Canton Supplies, Inc., is a service firm that...Ch. 17 - The Costello Music Company has been in business...Ch. 17 - Consider the Costello Music Company problem in...Ch. 17 - Refer to the Costello Music Company problem in...Ch. 17 - Refer to the Costello Music Company time series in...Ch. 17 - Hudson Marine has been an authorized dealer for CD...Ch. 17 - Refer to the Hudson Marine problem in exercise 52....Ch. 17 - Refer to the Hudson Marine problem in exercise 53....Ch. 17 - Refer to the Hudson Marine data in exercise 53. a....Ch. 17 - Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales The Vintage...Ch. 17 - Forecasting Lost Sales The Carlson Department...
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