Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel (with XLSTAT Education Edition Printed Access Card) (MindTap Course List)
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337115186
Author: David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Textbook Question
Chapter 17.5, Problem 32E
South Shore Construction builds permanent docks and seawalls along the southern shore of Long Island, New York. Although the firm has been in business only five years, revenue has increased from $308,000 in the first year of operation to $1,084,000 in the most recent year. The following data show the quarterly sales revenue in thousands of dollars.
- a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
- b. Use the following dummy variables to develop an estimated regression equation to account for seasonal effects in the data. Qtr1 = 1 if Quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if Quarter 2, 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if Quarter 3, 0 otherwise. Based only on the seasonal effects in the data, compute estimates of quarterly sales for year 6.
- c. Let Period = 1 to refer to the observation in quarter 1 of year 1; Period = 2 to refer to the observation in quarter 2 of year 1; … and Period = 20 to refer to the observation in quarter 4 of year 5. Using the dummy variables defined in part (b) and Period, develop an estimated regression equation to account for seasonal effects and any linear trend in the time series. Based upon the seasonal effects in the data and linear trend, compute estimates of quarterly sales for year 6.
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After its move in 1990 to La Junta, Colorado, and its new initiatives, the DeBourgh Manufacturing Company began an upward climb of record sales. Suppose the figures shown here are the DeBourgh monthly sales figures from January 2001 through December 2009 (in $1,000s).
a) Produce a time series plot. Are there any trends evident in the data? Does DeBourgh have a seasonal component to its sales?
b) Deseasonalize the data using Multiplicative model with a 0.5 weighted moving average. Produce a time series plot of the deseasonalized data and add a trendline.
c) Forecast the sales from January to December of the year 2010.
d) Include a discussion of the general direction of sales and any seasonal tendencies that might be occurrinG
Month
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
January
139.7
165.1
177.8
228.6
266.7
431.8
381
431.8
495.3
February
114.3
177.8
203.2
254
317.5
457.2
406.4
444.5
533.4
March
101.6
177.8
228.6
266.7
368.3
457.2
431.8
495.3
635
April
152.4
203.2…
Year Gross Federal Debt ($millions)
1945 260,123
1950 256,853
1955 274,366
1960 290,525
1965 322,318
1970 380,921
1975 541,925
1980 909,050
1985 1,817,521
1990 3,206,564
1995 4,921,005
2000 5,686,338
Construct a scatter plot with this data. Do you observe a trend? If so, what type of trend do you observe?
Use Excel to fit a linear trend and an exponential trend to the data. Display the models and their respective r^2.
Interpret both models. Which model seems to be more appropriate? Why?
Give at least three examples from economics where each of the following type of data can be used: cross-sectional data, time series data, and panel data.
Chapter 17 Solutions
Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel (with XLSTAT Education Edition Printed Access Card) (MindTap Course List)
Ch. 17.2 - 1. Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.2 - 2. Refer to the time series data in exercise 1....Ch. 17.2 - Prob. 3ECh. 17.2 - 4. Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.3 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.3 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.3 - Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in...Ch. 17.3 - Prob. 8ECh. 17.3 - 9. With the gasoline time series data from Table...Ch. 17.3 - 10. With a smoothing constant of α = .2, equation...
Ch. 17.3 - For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages...Ch. 17.3 - Corporate triple-A bond interest rates for 12...Ch. 17.3 - The values of Alabama building contracts (in $...Ch. 17.3 - The following time series shows the sales of a...Ch. 17.3 - Ten weeks of data on the Commodity Futures Index...Ch. 17.3 - Prob. 16ECh. 17.4 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.4 - Prob. 18ECh. 17.4 - Prob. 19ECh. 17.4 - Prob. 20ECh. 17.4 - Prob. 21ECh. 17.4 - Prob. 22ECh. 17.4 - The president of a small manufacturing firm is...Ch. 17.4 - The following data shows the average interest rate...Ch. 17.4 - Quarterly revenue ($ millions) for Twitter for the...Ch. 17.4 - Giovanni Food Products produces and sells frozen...Ch. 17.4 - The number of users of Facebook from 2004 through...Ch. 17.5 - Consider the following time series.
Construct a...Ch. 17.5 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.5 - The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold)...Ch. 17.5 - Air pollution control specialists in southern...Ch. 17.5 - South Shore Construction builds permanent docks...Ch. 17.5 - Prob. 33ECh. 17.5 - Prob. 34ECh. 17.6 - Consider the following time series...Ch. 17.6 - Refer to exercise 35.
Deseasonalize the time...Ch. 17.6 - The quarterly sales data (number of copies sold)...Ch. 17.6 - Three years of monthly lawn-maintenance expenses...Ch. 17.6 - Air pollution control specialists in southern...Ch. 17.6 - Electric power consumption is measured in...Ch. 17 - The weekly demand (in cases) for a particular...Ch. 17 - The following table reports the percentage of...Ch. 17 - United Dairies, Inc., supplies milk to several...Ch. 17 - Annual retail store revenue for Apple from 2007 to...Ch. 17 - The Mayfair Department Store in Davenport, Iowa,...Ch. 17 - Prob. 47SECh. 17 - The Costello Music Company has been in business...Ch. 17 - Consider the Costello Music Company problem in...Ch. 17 - Prob. 50SECh. 17 - Refer to the Costello Music Company time series in...Ch. 17 - Prob. 52SECh. 17 - Refer to the Hudson Marine problem in exercise 52....Ch. 17 - Refer to the Hudson Marine problem in exercise...Ch. 17 - Refer to the Hudson Marine data in exercise...Ch. 17 - Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales
The Vintage...Ch. 17 - The Carlson Department Store suffered heavy damage...
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