Concept explainers
a)
To determine: The best investment using different decision criteria.
Introduction:
Decision analysis can be interpreted as the most common technique to make a decision in the situation when there is uncertainty. It uses quantitative measures to analyze the decision that is also used in operation of the firms.
b)
To determine: The best investment using different decision criteria.
Introduction:
Decision analysis can be interpreted as the most common technique to make a decision in the situation when there is uncertainty. It uses quantitative measures to analyze the decision that is also used in operation of the firms.
c)
To determine: The best investment using different decision criteria.
Introduction:
Decision analysis can be interpreted as the most common technique to make a decision in the situation when there is uncertainty. It uses quantitative measures to analyze the decision that is also used in operation of the firms.
d)
To determine: The best investment using different decision criteria.
Introduction:
Decision analysis can be interpreted as the most common technique to make a decision in the situation when there is uncertainty. It uses quantitative measures to analyze the decision that is also used in operation of the firms.
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OPERATIONS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
- Fenton and Farrah Friendly, husband-and-wife car dealers, are soon going to open a new dealership. They have three offers: from a foreign compact car company, from a U.S.- producer of full-sized cars, and from a truck company. The success of each type of dealership will depend on how much gasoline is going to be available during the next few years. The profit from each type of dealership, given the availability of gas, is shown in the following payoff table: Gasoline Avalability Dealership Shortage 0.6 Surplus 0.4 Compact Cars $300,000 $150,000 Full-sized cars -100,000 600,000 Trucks 120,000 170,000 a) Determine which type of dealership the couple should purchase. b) Construct a decision tree for this problem’s decision and indicate the best decision. The Friendlys are considering hiring a petroleum analyst to determine the future availability of gasoline. The analyst will report that either a shortage or a surplus will occur. The probability that…arrow_forwardFenton and Farrah Friendly, husband-and-wife car dealers, are soon going to open a new dealership. They have three offers: from a foreign compact car company, from a U.S.-producer of full-sized cars, and from a truck company. The success of each type of dealership will depend on how much gasoline is going to be available during the next few years. The profit from each type of dealership, given the availability of gas, is shown in the following payoff table: Gasoline Availability Shortage Surplus Dealership .6 .4 Compact cars $ 300,000 $150,000 Full-sized cars -100,000 600,000 Trucks 120,000 170,000 Determine which type of dealership the couple should purchase.arrow_forwardA small strip-mining coal company is trying to decide whether it should purchase or lease a new clamshell. If purchased, the “shell” will cost $152,500 and is expected to have a $50,000 salvage value after 6 years. Alternatively, the company can lease a clamshell for only $16,000 per year, but the lease payment will have to be made at the beginning of each year. If the clamshell is purchased, it will be leased to other strip-mining companies whenever possible, an activity that is expected to yield revenues of $9,000 per year. If the company’s MARR is 13% per year, should the clamshell be purchased or leased on the basis of a future worth analysis? Assume the annual M&O cost is the same for both options. The future worth when purchased is $ The future worth when leased is $arrow_forward
- Dillon DeMarco is considering opening a small Italian bakery in the nearby mall, close to the Italian section of the city. He has chosen a good location where he believes there will be interest in the bakery. However, Dillon is unsure how much interest there will be and is trying to decide whether to open a small, medium or large shop. It really depends on what the economy is like in the next year whether people are able to spend their money on his Italian delicacies. Based on the latest financial reports, there is a 20%20% probability for a strong economy, 30%30% probability for an average economy and 50%50% probability for a bad economy. The potential payoffs for a small, medium or large shop for a given year are shown in the decision table. Decision Table State of Nature Alternatives Strong Economy Average Economy Bad Economy Small Shop 20,00020,000 18,00018,000 30,00030,000 Medium Shop 45,00045,000 50,00050,000 45,00045,000 Large Shop 85,00085,000 64,00064,000…arrow_forwardA property development company is planning to build a block of student apartments in Lusaka’s Mass Media area. The company is yet to decide what size of block to build: a small, medium, or large. The payoffs of each size will depend on the demand for student accommodation in the area, which could be low, medium, high. The Developer estimates a 25%, 35%, and 40% chance of low, medium, and high demand, respectively. Below is a payoffs matrix (in K’000) showing the annual payoffs for the decision problem. Size of Block Market Demand Low Medium High Small 400 400 400 Medium 200 500 500 Large -400 300 800 Required: Identify the decision alternatives and uncertain conditions surrounding them? What is the optimal decision if the Developer is conservative? What is the optimal decision if the Developer is a risk taker? What is the optimal decision if the Developer wishes to minimize the Expected Opportunity Loss on the decision to be taken?arrow_forwardJeffrey Mogul is a Hollywood film producer, and he is currently evaluating a script by a new screenwriter and director, Betty Jo Thurston. Jeffrey knows that the probability of a film by a new director being a success is about .10 and that the probability it will flop is .90. The studio accounting department estimates that if this film is a hit, it will make $25 million in profit, whereas if it is a box office failure, it will lose $8 million. Jeffrey would like to hire noted film critic Dick Roper to read the script and assess its chances of success. Roper is generally able to correctly predict a successful film 70% of the time and correctly predict an unsuccessful film 80% of the time. Roper wants a fee of $1 million. Determine whether Roper should be hired, the strategy Mogul should follow if Roper is hired, and the expected value.arrow_forward
- A local real estate investor in Kingston is considering three alternative investments: a motel, a restaurant, or a theater. Profits from the motel or restaurant will be affected by the availability of gasoline and the number of tourists; profits from the theater will be relatively stable under any conditions. The following payoff table shows the profit or loss that could result from each investment: Real Estate Investor Payoff Table Payoffs are Profits States of Nature (Gasoline Availability) Decision Alternatives Shortage Stable Supply Surplus Motel $–8,000 $15,000 $22,000 Restaurant $2,000 $8,000 $6,000 Theater $6,000 $6,000 $5,000 Which option should the real estate investor choose if he uses the LaPlace criterion? Using…arrow_forwardEllie Daniels has $200,000 and is considering three mutual funds for investment—a global fund, an index fund, and an Internet stock fund. During the first year of investment, Ellie estimates that there is a .70 probability that the market will go up and a .30 probability that the market will go down. Following are the returns on her $200,000 investment at the end of the year under each market condition: Market Conditions Fund Up Down Global $25,000 $ -8,000 Index 35,000 5,000 Internet 60,000 -35,000 At the end of the first year, Ellie will either reinvest the entire amount plus the return or sell and take the profit or loss. If she reinvests, she estimates that there is a .60 probability the market will go up and a .40 probability the market will go down. If Ellie reinvests in the global fund after it has gone up, her return on her initial $200,000 investment plus her $25,000 return after 1 year will be $45,000. If the market goes down, her loss will be $15,000. If she reinvests after…arrow_forwardTroop Inc. is considering building a factory in India. The estimated cash flows for the project are given below and management consider that a discount rate of 12% reflects the riskiness of the venture. The Indian government has agreed to purchase the factory at the end of three years operation for Rupees 250 million. Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Total cash inflows (Indian rupees (m)) 0 300 500 600 Total cash outflows (Indian rupees (m)) 800 220 230 280 Increase in US cash inflows (m) 0 2 2 2 Forecast exchange rate Rupees /$ 78.7 78.9 80 80.5 Required:a) Calculate the net present value of the project and advise whether Troop Inc should build the factory. b) Describe the factors Troop Inc. should consider when…arrow_forward
- Microcomp is a U.S.-based manufacturer of personal computers. It is planning to build a new manufacturing and distribution facility in either South Korea, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, or Mexico. It will take approximately 5 years to build the necessary infrastructure (roads, etc.), construct the new facility, and put it into operation. The eventual cost of the facility will differ between countries and will even vary within countries depending on the financial, labor, and political climate, including monetary exchange rates. The company has estimated the facility cost (in $1,000,000s) in each country under three different future economic and political climates, as follows: Determine the best decision, using the following decision criteria. a. Minimin b. Minimaxarrow_forwardThe director of career advising at Grand Valley Commu-nity College wants to use decision analysis to provide in-formation to help students decide which two-year degree program they should pursue. The director has set up the following payoff table for six of the most popular and suc-cessful degree programs at GVCC that shows the estimated five-year gross income ($) from each degree for four futureeconomic conditions:Determine the best degree program in terms of projectedincome, using the following decision criteria:a. Maximaxb. Maximinc. Equal likelihoodd. Hurwicz ( .25) Economic ConditionsDegree Program Recession Average Good RobustGraphic Design 115,000 155,000 190,000 220,000Nursing 140,000 175,000 210,000 225,000Real Estate 95,000 135,000 230,000 350,000Medical Technology 120,000 180,000 210,000 270,000Culinary Technology 85,000 125,000 180,000 290,000Computer InformationTechnology 125,000 160,000 200,000 260,000arrow_forwardThe owner of the Columbia Construction Company must decide between building a housing development, constructing a shopping center, and leasing all the company’s equipment to another company. The profit that will result from each alternative will be determined by whether material costs remain stable or increase. The profit from each alternative, given the two possibilities for material costs, is shown in the following payoff table: Material Costs Decision Stable Increase Houses $70,000 $30,000 Shopping center 105,000 20,000 Leasing 40,000 40,000 Determine the best decision, using the following decision criteria. a. Maximax b. Maximin c. Minimax regret d. Hurwicz e. Equal likelihoodarrow_forward
- Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,