Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel (with XLSTAT Education Edition Printed Access Card) (MindTap Course List)
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337115186
Author: David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran
Publisher: Cengage Learning
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Chapter 20.4, Problem 16E
To save on expenses, Rona and Jerry agreed to form a carpool for traveling to and from work. Rona preferred to use the somewhat longer but more consistent Queen City Avenue. Although Jerry preferred the quicker expressway, he agreed with Rona that they should take Queen City Avenue if the expressway had a traffic jam. The following payoff table provides the one-way time estimate in minutes for traveling to and from work.
| State of Nature | ||
| Expressway Open | Expressway Jammed | |
| Decision Alternative | s1 | s2 |
| Queen City Avenue, d1 | 30 | 30 |
| Expressway, d2 | 25 | 45 |
Based on their experience with traffic problems, Rona and Jerry agreed on a .15
In addition, they agreed that weather seemed to affect the traffic conditions on the expressway. Let
C = clear
O = overcast
R = rain
The following conditional probabilities apply.
| P(C | s1) 5= .8 | P(O | s1) = .2 | P(R | s1) = .0 |
| P(C | s2) = .1 | P(O | s2) = .3 | P(R | s2) = .6 |
- a. Use Bayes’ theorem for probability revision to compute the probability of each weather condition and the conditional probability of the expressway open, s1, or jammed, s2, given each weather condition.
- b. Show the decision tree for this problem.
- c. W hat is the optimal decision strategy, and what is the expected travel time?
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Chapter 20 Solutions
Modern Business Statistics with Microsoft Office Excel (with XLSTAT Education Edition Printed Access Card) (MindTap Course List)
Ch. 20.2 - Prob. 1ECh. 20.2 - Prob. 2ECh. 20.2 - 3. Hudson Corporation is considering three options...Ch. 20.2 - 4. Myrtle Air Express decided to offer direct...Ch. 20.2 - 5. The distance from Potsdam to larger markets and...Ch. 20.2 - 6. Seneca Hill Winery recently purchased land for...Ch. 20.2 - 7. The Lake Placid Town Council has decided to...Ch. 20.3 - Consider a variation of the PDC decision tree...Ch. 20.3 - 9. A real estate investor has the opportunity to...Ch. 20.3 - Dante Development Corporation is considering...
Ch. 20.3 - 11. Hale’s TV Productions is considering producing...Ch. 20.3 - 12. Martin’s Service Station is considering...Ch. 20.3 - 13. Lawson’s Department Store faces a buying...Ch. 20.4 - Prob. 14ECh. 20.4 - 15. In the following profit payoff table for a...Ch. 20.4 - 16. To save on expenses, Rona and Jerry agreed to...Ch. 20.4 - 17. The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide...Ch. 20 - Prob. 18SECh. 20 - 19. Warren Lloyd is interested in leasing a new...Ch. 20 - Hemmingway, Inc., is considering a $50 million...Ch. 20 - 21. Embassy Publishing Company received a...Ch. 20 - Case Problem Lawsuit Defense Strategy
John...
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