A Concise Intro To Logic
12th Edition
ISBN: 9781305147775
Author: Hurley
Publisher: Cengage
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You are getting into a business and want to take a loan. The bank requires that you show them your projected profits. Develop calculate a forecast for the next five years starting 2024 the following data: First order is for 100,000 units at a selling price of 6kshs per unit. Both numbers are projected to increase by 20% yearly Renting the production facility at 500,000kshs a year for five years Variable manufacturing cost of 1.50kshs per unit with a projected increase of 10% yearly Administration cost of 25,000kshs per year with a likely increase of 5%annually Tax rate is at 36%a) Develop a five year financial forecast showing profits before and after tax. b) Determine If the Loan should be given based on the forecast
5-41 The following table provides the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) opening index value on the first working day of 1994–2013. Develop a trend line and use it to predict the opening DJIA index value for years 2014, 2015, and 2016. Find the MSE for this model.
Which of the following scenarios is the most credible forecast over the next decade. (Choose ONLY 1 Scenario). Why?
Globalization of Business is Inevitable
IB Growth that is Less Global
Globalization and IB will Slow
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Similar questions
Sales of Volkswagens have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below).
Year
Sales
1
460
2
502
3
518
4
575
5
580
Part 2
a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are
enter your response here
sales (round your response to one decimal place).
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which show the least similar trends over 2017 to 2018
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Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the past 5 years (see table below).
Year
Sales
1
455
2
510
3
518
4
570
5
590
a) Forecasted sales for year 6 using the trend projection (linear regression) method are
nothing
sales (round your response to one decimal place)
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Among these trend patterns, within the projection methods, choose the one that is most common when analyzing demand, and why?-Secular trend
-Seasonal variation
-Cyclical fluctuations
-Irregular movements
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Given the following data, use least-squares regression to derive a trend equation:
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
Demand
6
7
10
11
9
15
The least-squares regression equation that shows the best relationship between demand and period is (round your responses to two decimal places):
y=nothing+nothingx,
where
y=Demand
and
x=Period.
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An electronic appliance manufacturer wants to know if there is a relationship between percentage change in deposable personal income which is reported quarterly by the government, and the percentage change in appliances sold by the manufacturer following same years of quarterly data. Brenda Chee and Clarence Paulus lead an analyst team has obtained data for the past 10 quarters. (Hint: Provides your answers in two decimal points)Table 1
Quarter
% change
in income
% Change in
appliance sold
Quarter
% change
in income
% Change in
appliance sold
1
-2.3
-2.5
6
-1.0
1.0
2
-1.5
-1.0
7
0.7
1.4
3
2.8
7.4
8
5.2
3.4
4
0.5
2.6
9
-2.5
-0.5
5
4.6
8.5
10
1.7
1.8
(a) Identify which is the dependent variable and independent variable in this case.
(b) Develop the forecasting model from this data.
(c) Identify the nature of the relationship between two variables based on the data that you have here.
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An electronic appliance manufacturer wants to know if there is a relationship between percentage change in deposable personal income which is reported quarterly by the government, and the percentage change in appliances sold by the manufacturer following same years of quarterly data. Brenda Chee and Clarence Paulus lead an analyst team has obtained data for the past 10 quarters. (Hint: Provides your answers in two decimal points)Table 1
Quarter
% change
in income
% Change in
appliance sold
Quarter
% change
in income
% Change in
appliance sold
1
-2.3
-2.5
6
-1.0
1.0
2
-1.5
-1.0
7
0.7
1.4
3
2.8
7.4
8
5.2
3.4
4
0.5
2.6
9
-2.5
-0.5
5
4.6
8.5
10
1.7
1.8
(a) What forecasting model should be used for this data. Why?
(b) Develop the forecasting model that you have proposed in (a)
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Through forecasting, organizations attempt to adapt to or change the future as predicted through planning.
True
False
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Sales of a particular product for the years 2017 through 2020 have been 43,466, 63,848, 51,112 and 79,210 respectively.
What sales would you predict for 2021 using a simple four-year moving average?
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The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows:
YEAR
CASES OF MERLOT WINE
1
270
2
356
3
398
4
456
5
358
6
500
7
410
8
376
Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of year 8. Use the average demand for years 1 through 3 as your initial forecast for year 4, and then smooth the forecast forward to year 8.
Note: Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.
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When a new business is started, or a patent idea needs funding, venture capitalists or investment bankers will want to see a business plan that includes forecast information related to profit and loss statements. What type of forecasting information do you think would the investors be looking for? Why?
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If sales are 43,854 and 43,811 for 2018 and 2019, what would you forecast for 2020 using exponential smoothing with a weight of 0.82 ?
(The first forecast is equal to the actual value of the preceding year).
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