Principles of Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN: 9780134181981
Author: Jay Heizer, Barry Render, Chuck Munson
Publisher: PEARSON
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Chapter 4, Problem 22DQ
CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and Light, has been collecting data on demand for electric power in its western subregion for only the past 2 years. Those data are shown in the table below.
To plan for expansion and to arrange to borrow power from neighboring utilities during peak periods, Goodale needs to be able to forecast demand for each month next year. However, the standard
a) What are the weaknesses of the standard forecasting techniques as applied to this set of data?
b) Because known models are not appropriate here, propose your own approach to forecasting. Although there is no perfect solution to tackling data such as these (in other words, there are no 100% right or wrong answers), justify your model.
c) Forecast demand for each month next year using the model you propose.
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CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and Light,has been collecting data on demand for electric power in itswestern subregion for only the past 2 years. Those da ta areshown in the ta ble below.To plan for expansion and to arrange to borrow powerfrom neighboring utilities during peak periods, Goodaleneeds to be able to forecast demand for each month nextyear. However, the standard forecasting models discussed inthis chapter will not fit the data observed for the 2 years.a) What are the weaknesses of the standard forecasting techniquesas applied to this set of data?b) Because known models a re not appropriate here, proposeyour own approach to forecasting. Although there is noperfect solution to tackling data such as these (in otherwords, there are no 100% right or wrong answers), justify your model.c) Forecast demand for each month next year using themodel you propose.
The manager of a popular tourist resort wants to use the manual trend projection forecasting technique and exponential smoothing without trend to forecast room occupancy at the resort for the next 4 years. Using a numerical example, demonstrate how these techniques can be used to do the forecast.
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REQUIREMENT- USE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING(WITHOUT TREND) ONLY
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Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below:
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3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8
4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 14
5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 18
6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 15
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With an alpha value of 0.31 and a starting forecast in day 3 equal to the 21 , what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 4? (Round to two decimal places)Â
15
What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 5?   (Round to two decimal places)
16
Chapter 4 Solutions
Principles of Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (10th Edition)
Ch. 4 - Ethical Dilemma We live in a society obsessed with...Ch. 4 - What is a qualitative forecasting model, and when...Ch. 4 - Identify and briefly describe the two general...Ch. 4 - Identify the three forecasting time horizons....Ch. 4 - Briefly describe the steps that are used to...Ch. 4 - A skeptical manager asks what medium-range...Ch. 4 - Explain why such forecasting devices as moving...Ch. 4 - What is the basic difference between a weighted...Ch. 4 - What three methods are used to determine the...Ch. 4 - Research and briefly describe the Delphi...
Ch. 4 - What is the primary difference between a...Ch. 4 - Define time series.Ch. 4 - What effect does the value of the smoothing...Ch. 4 - Explain the value of seasonal indices in...Ch. 4 - Prob. 14DQCh. 4 - In your own words, explain adaptive forecasting.Ch. 4 - Prob. 16DQCh. 4 - Explain, in your own words, the meaning of the...Ch. 4 - Prob. 18DQCh. 4 - Give examples of industries that are affected by...Ch. 4 - Prob. 20DQCh. 4 - Prob. 21DQCh. 4 - CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and...Ch. 4 - The following gives the number of pints of type B...Ch. 4 - a) Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe...Ch. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.2. Develop a forecast for years...Ch. 4 - A check-processing center uses exponential...Ch. 4 - The Carbondale Hospital is considering the...Ch. 4 - The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were...Ch. 4 - The actual demand for the patients at Omaha...Ch. 4 - Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last...Ch. 4 - Lenovo uses the ZX-81 chip in some of its laptop...Ch. 4 - Data collected on the yearly registrations for a...Ch. 4 - Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing...Ch. 4 - Prob. 12PCh. 4 - At you can see in the following table, demand for...Ch. 4 - Prob. 14PCh. 4 - Refer to Solved Problem 4.1 on page 144. a) Use a...Ch. 4 - Prob. 16PCh. 4 - Prob. 17PCh. 4 - Prob. 18PCh. 4 - Income at the architectural firm Spraggins and...Ch. 4 - Resolve Problem 4.19 with = .1 and =.8. Using...Ch. 4 - Prob. 21PCh. 4 - Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the trend-adjusted...Ch. 4 - Prob. 23PCh. 4 - The following gives the number of accidents that...Ch. 4 - In the past, Peter Kelles tire dealership in Baton...Ch. 4 - George Kyparisis owns a company that manufactures...Ch. 4 - Attendance at Orlandos newest Disneylike...Ch. 4 - Prob. 28PCh. 4 - The number of disk drives (in millions) made at a...Ch. 4 - Prob. 30PCh. 4 - Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North...Ch. 4 - Using the 911 call data in Problem 4.31, forecast...Ch. 4 - Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new...Ch. 4 - Boulanger Savings and Loan is proud of its long...Ch. 4 - Mark Gershon, owner of a musical instrument...Ch. 4 - Prob. 44PCh. 4 - Cafe Michigans manager, Gary Stark, suspects that...Ch. 4 - Prob. 46PCh. 4 - The number of auto accidents in Athens, Ohio, is...Ch. 4 - Rhonda Clark, a Slippery Rock, Pennsylvania, real...Ch. 4 - Accountants at the Tucson firm, Larry Youdelman,...Ch. 4 - Prob. 50PCh. 4 - Using the data in Problem 4.30, apply linear...Ch. 4 - Bus and subway ridership for the summer months in...Ch. 4 - Prob. 53PCh. 4 - Dave Fletcher, the general manager of North...Ch. 4 - Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickmans...Ch. 4 - The following are monthly actual and forecast...Ch. 4 - Develop a forecasting model, justifying its...Ch. 4 - Prob. 2CSCh. 4 - Discuss the schools options.Ch. 4 - Prob. 1.1VCCh. 4 - Prob. 1.2VCCh. 4 - Using Perezs multiple-regression model, what would...Ch. 4 - Prob. 1.4VCCh. 4 - Describe three different forecasting applications...Ch. 4 - What is the role of the POS system in forecasting...Ch. 4 - Justify the use of the weighting system used for...Ch. 4 - Name several variables besides those mentioned in...Ch. 4 - Prob. 2.5VC
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