Campaign Strategies 27 Florida and Ohio are “swing states” that have a large bounty of electoral votes and are therefore highly valued by presidential campaign strategists. Suppose that it is now the weekend before Election Day 2012, and each candidate (Romney and Obama) can visit only one more state. Further, to win the election, Romney needs to win both of these states. Currently, Romney has a 40% chance of winning Ohio and a 60% chance of winning Florida. Therefore, he has a 0.40 × 0.60 = 0.24 , or 24%, chance of winning the election. Assume that each candidate can increase his probability of winning a state by 10% if he but not his opponent visits that state. If both candidates visit the same state, there is no effect. a. Set up a payoff matrix with Romney as the row player and Obama as the column player, where the payoff for a specific set of circumstances is the probability (expressed as a percentage) that Romney will win both states. b. Where should each candidate visit under the circumstances?
Campaign Strategies 27 Florida and Ohio are “swing states” that have a large bounty of electoral votes and are therefore highly valued by presidential campaign strategists. Suppose that it is now the weekend before Election Day 2012, and each candidate (Romney and Obama) can visit only one more state. Further, to win the election, Romney needs to win both of these states. Currently, Romney has a 40% chance of winning Ohio and a 60% chance of winning Florida. Therefore, he has a 0.40 × 0.60 = 0.24 , or 24%, chance of winning the election. Assume that each candidate can increase his probability of winning a state by 10% if he but not his opponent visits that state. If both candidates visit the same state, there is no effect. a. Set up a payoff matrix with Romney as the row player and Obama as the column player, where the payoff for a specific set of circumstances is the probability (expressed as a percentage) that Romney will win both states. b. Where should each candidate visit under the circumstances?
Solution Summary: The author calculates the payoff matrix, which is the probability that Romney will win in both states if he has 24% chance of winning in the election.
Campaign Strategies27 Florida and Ohio are “swing states” that have a large bounty of electoral votes and are therefore highly valued by presidential campaign strategists. Suppose that it is now the weekend before Election Day 2012, and each candidate (Romney and Obama) can visit only one more state. Further, to win the election, Romney needs to win both of these states. Currently, Romney has a 40% chance of winning Ohio and a 60% chance of winning Florida. Therefore, he has a
0.40
×
0.60
=
0.24
, or 24%, chance of winning the election. Assume that each candidate can increase his probability of winning a state by 10% if he but not his opponent visits that state. If both candidates visit the same state, there is no effect.
a. Set up a payoff matrix with Romney as the row player and Obama as the column player, where the payoff for a specific set of circumstances is the probability (expressed as a percentage) that Romney will win both states.
b. Where should each candidate visit under the circumstances?
Flasher Marketing Research (FMR) specializes in assessing the prospects for a women's clothing store in a central hub. Al Flashner, the company's director, explains that he rates a prospect based on good, fair, and bad criteria. Records show that 60 percent of store prospects are good, 30 percent are fair, and 10 percent are bad. Of the stores that had a good prospect, 80 percent of the profits in the first year, from sufficient stores, 60 percent of them made a profit in the first year, and of the stores that had a bad chance, 20 percent made a profit in the first year. Connie's women's clothing store is one of Flashner's customers. Connie's women's clothing store made a fortune in the last year. What is the probability that the shop has a bad prospect?
ASAP!!
A firm purchases a microchip used in the manufacturing of LED screens from four different suppliers. TechZone supplies 32 percent of the total microchips, Advance Electronics 20 percent, PSP importers 23 percent, and TechParts inc. 25 percent. TechZone tends to have the best quality, as only 1 percent of its microchips arrive defective. Advance Electronics chips are 3 percent defective, PSP importers chips are 6 percent defective, and Parts Inc. are 5.5 percent defective.
If a random chip is selected, what is the probability that the chip is defective
A defective chip was discovered in the latest shipment. What is the probability that it came from TechZone supplies?
A defective chip was discovered in the latest shipment. What is the probability that it came from TechParts Inc.?
Election 2008 During the spring of 2006 the news media were already conducting opinion polls that tracked the fortunes of the major candidates hoping to become the president of the United States. One such poll conducted by Financial Dynamics showed the following results:1
“Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 election were held today and the candidates were Democrat [see below] and Republican [see below], for whom would you vote?”
John
McCain (R)
Hillary
Clinton (D)
Unsure
%
%
%
46
42
13
John
McCain
Al Gore
Unsure
%
%
%
51
33
15
Rudy
Giuliani
Hillary
Clinton
Unsure
%
%
%
49
40
12
Rudy
Giuliani
Al Gore
Unsure
%
%
%
50
37
13
The results were based on a sample taken May 16–18, 2006, of 900 registered voters nationwide.
a. If the pollsters were planning to use these results to predict the outcome of the 2008 presidential election, describe the population of interest…
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