Chapter 8.5, Problem 29MS

My theory ... You are a paleontologist who finds part of a dinosaur bone. After careful study you determine there’s a 50% chance the dinos aur was a Juliasaurus, a 15% chance it was a Noahsaurus, and a 35% chance it is a new dinosaur altogether. Later your graduate student finds a confirmed Maxxasaurus bone at the same site. You know from earlier research that of all confirmed discoveries of Juliasaurus bones, 5% have been found at sites that also contain Maxxasaurus bones. Of all confirmed discoveries of Noahsaurus bones, 30% have been found at sites containing Maxxasaurus bones. And among all discoveries that are neither Juliasaurus or Noahsaurus, 10% have been found at sites containing Maxxasaurus bones. Imagine you have 1000 identical bone specimens. Complete the table below to help you decide which dinosaur is the most likely source of your original discovery.