Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Chapter 9, Problem 32P
a)
Summary Introduction
To identify: The strategy that would maximize the expected net earnings using precision tree.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to
b)
Summary Introduction
To perform: The input that have the largest effect on the best solution.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to forecast the performance of the system or model in the real world.
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Chapter 9 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 9.2 - Prob. 1PCh. 9.2 - Prob. 2PCh. 9.2 - Prob. 3PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 4PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 5PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 6PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 7PCh. 9.4 - Explain in some detail how the PrecisionTree...Ch. 9.4 - Prob. 9PCh. 9.4 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 9.5 - Prob. 11PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 12PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 13PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 17PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 18PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 19PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 21PCh. 9.5 - The model in Example 9.3 has only two market...Ch. 9.6 - Prob. 26PCh. 9.6 - Prob. 27PCh. 9.6 - Prob. 28PCh. 9 - Prob. 30PCh. 9 - Prob. 31PCh. 9 - Prob. 32PCh. 9 - Prob. 34PCh. 9 - Prob. 36PCh. 9 - Prob. 37PCh. 9 - Prob. 38PCh. 9 - Prob. 39PCh. 9 - Prob. 46PCh. 9 - Prob. 48PCh. 9 - Prob. 53PCh. 9 - Prob. 67PCh. 9 - Prob. 68PCh. 9 - Prob. 69PCh. 9 - Prob. 70PCh. 9 - Prob. 71PCh. 9 - Prob. 72PCh. 9 - Prob. 73PCh. 9 - Prob. 74PCh. 9 - Prob. 75PCh. 9 - Prob. 76PCh. 9 - Prob. 77P
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- You now have 10,000, all of which is invested in a sports team. Each year there is a 60% chance that the value of the team will increase by 60% and a 40% chance that the value of the team will decrease by 60%. Estimate the mean and median value of your investment after 50 years. Explain the large difference between the estimated mean and median.arrow_forwardConsider the following card game. The player and dealer each receive a card from a 52-card deck. At the end of the game the player with the highest card wins; a tie goes to the dealer. (You can assume that Aces count 1, Jacks 11, Queens 12, and Kings 13.) After the player receives his card, he keeps the card if it is 7 or higher. If the player does not keep the card, the player and dealer swap cards. Then the dealer keeps his current card (which might be the players original card) if it is 9 or higher. If the dealer does not keep his card, he draws another card. Use simulation with at least 1000 iterations to estimate the probability that the player wins. (Hint: See the file Sampling Without Replacement.xlsx, one of the example files, to see a clever way of simulating cards from a deck so that the Same card is never dealt more than once.)arrow_forwardIn this version of dice blackjack, you toss a single die repeatedly and add up the sum of your dice tosses. Your goal is to come as close as possible to a total of 7 without going over. You may stop at any time. If your total is 8 or more, you lose. If your total is 7 or less, the house then tosses the die repeatedly. The house stops as soon as its total is 4 or more. If the house totals 8 or more, you win. Otherwise, the higher total wins. If there is a tie, the house wins. Consider the following strategies: Keep tossing until your total is 3 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 4 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 5 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 6 or more. Keep tossing until your total is 7 or more. For example, suppose you keep tossing until your total is 4 or more. Here are some examples of how the game might go: You toss a 2 and then a 3 and stop for total of 5. The house tosses a 3 and then a 2. You lose because a tie goes to the house. You toss a 3 and then a 6. You lose. You toss a 6 and stop. The house tosses a 3 and then a 2. You win. You toss a 3 and then a 4 for total of 7. The house tosses a 3 and then a 5. You win. Note that only 4 tosses need to be generated for the house, but more tosses might need to be generated for you, depending on your strategy. Develop a simulation and run it for at least 1000 iterations for each of the strategies listed previously. For each strategy, what are the two values so that you are 95% sure that your probability of winning is between these two values? Which of the five strategies appears to be best?arrow_forward
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