Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
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Chapter 9, Problem 34P
a)
Summary Introduction
To identify: The strategy that would maximize the expected 1-year earnings using precision tree.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to
b)
Summary Introduction
To perform: The sensitivity analysis on optimal decision.
Introduction: Simulation model is the digital prototype of the physical model that helps to forecast the performance of the system or model in the real world.
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Chapter 9 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 9.2 - Prob. 1PCh. 9.2 - Prob. 2PCh. 9.2 - Prob. 3PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 4PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 5PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 6PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 7PCh. 9.4 - Explain in some detail how the PrecisionTree...Ch. 9.4 - Prob. 9PCh. 9.4 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 9.5 - Prob. 11PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 12PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 13PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 17PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 18PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 19PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 21PCh. 9.5 - The model in Example 9.3 has only two market...Ch. 9.6 - Prob. 26PCh. 9.6 - Prob. 27PCh. 9.6 - Prob. 28PCh. 9 - Prob. 30PCh. 9 - Prob. 31PCh. 9 - Prob. 32PCh. 9 - Prob. 34PCh. 9 - Prob. 36PCh. 9 - Prob. 37PCh. 9 - Prob. 38PCh. 9 - Prob. 39PCh. 9 - Prob. 46PCh. 9 - Prob. 48PCh. 9 - Prob. 53PCh. 9 - Prob. 67PCh. 9 - Prob. 68PCh. 9 - Prob. 69PCh. 9 - Prob. 70PCh. 9 - Prob. 71PCh. 9 - Prob. 72PCh. 9 - Prob. 73PCh. 9 - Prob. 74PCh. 9 - Prob. 75PCh. 9 - Prob. 76PCh. 9 - Prob. 77P
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- Based on Kelly (1956). You currently have 100. Each week you can invest any amount of money you currently have in a risky investment. With probability 0.4, the amount you invest is tripled (e.g., if you invest 100, you increase your asset position by 300), and, with probability 0.6, the amount you invest is lost. Consider the following investment strategies: Each week, invest 10% of your money. Each week, invest 30% of your money. Each week, invest 50% of your money. Use @RISK to simulate 100 weeks of each strategy 1000 times. Which strategy appears to be best in terms of the maximum growth rate? (In general, if you can multiply your investment by M with probability p and lose your investment with probability q = 1 p, you should invest a fraction [p(M 1) q]/(M 1) of your money each week. This strategy maximizes the expected growth rate of your fortune and is known as the Kelly criterion.) (Hint: If an initial wealth of I dollars grows to F dollars in 100 weeks, the weekly growth rate, labeled r, satisfies F = (I + r)100, so that r = (F/I)1/100 1.)arrow_forwardYou now have 10,000, all of which is invested in a sports team. Each year there is a 60% chance that the value of the team will increase by 60% and a 40% chance that the value of the team will decrease by 60%. Estimate the mean and median value of your investment after 50 years. Explain the large difference between the estimated mean and median.arrow_forwardIn the financial world, there are many types of complex instruments called derivatives that derive their value from the value of an underlying asset. Consider the following simple derivative. A stocks current price is 80 per share. You purchase a derivative whose value to you becomes known a month from now. Specifically, let P be the price of the stock in a month. If P is between 75 and 85, the derivative is worth nothing to you. If P is less than 75, the derivative results in a loss of 100(75-P) dollars to you. (The factor of 100 is because many derivatives involve 100 shares.) If P is greater than 85, the derivative results in a gain of 100(P-85) dollars to you. Assume that the distribution of the change in the stock price from now to a month from now is normally distributed with mean 1 and standard deviation 8. Let EMV be the expected gain/loss from this derivative. It is a weighted average of all the possible losses and gains, weighted by their likelihoods. (Of course, any loss should be expressed as a negative number. For example, a loss of 1500 should be expressed as -1500.) Unfortunately, this is a difficult probability calculation, but EMV can be estimated by an @RISK simulation. Perform this simulation with at least 1000 iterations. What is your best estimate of EMV?arrow_forward
- Suppose you currently have a portfolio of three stocks, A, B, and C. You own 500 shares of A, 300 of B, and 1000 of C. The current share prices are 42.76, 81.33, and, 58.22, respectively. You plan to hold this portfolio for at least a year. During the coming year, economists have predicted that the national economy will be awful, stable, or great with probabilities 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3. Given the state of the economy, the returns (one-year percentage changes) of the three stocks are independent and normally distributed. However, the means and standard deviations of these returns depend on the state of the economy, as indicated in the file P11_23.xlsx. a. Use @RISK to simulate the value of the portfolio and the portfolio return in the next year. How likely is it that you will have a negative return? How likely is it that you will have a return of at least 25%? b. Suppose you had a crystal ball where you could predict the state of the economy with certainty. The stock returns would still be uncertain, but you would know whether your means and standard deviations come from row 6, 7, or 8 of the P11_23.xlsx file. If you learn, with certainty, that the economy is going to be great in the next year, run the appropriate simulation to answer the same questions as in part a. Repeat this if you learn that the economy is going to be awful. How do these results compare with those in part a?arrow_forwardIf you own a stock, buying a put option on the stock will greatly reduce your risk. This is the idea behind portfolio insurance. To illustrate, consider a stock that currently sells for 56 and has an annual volatility of 30%. Assume the risk-free rate is 8%, and you estimate that the stocks annual growth rate is 12%. a. Suppose you own 100 shares of this stock. Use simulation to estimate the probability distribution of the percentage return earned on this stock during a one-year period. b. Now suppose you also buy a put option (for 238) on the stock. The option has an exercise price of 50 and an exercise date one year from now. Use simulation to estimate the probability distribution of the percentage return on your portfolio over a one-year period. Can you see why this strategy is called a portfolio insurance strategy? c. Use simulation to show that the put option should, indeed, sell for about 238.arrow_forwardA European put option allows an investor to sell a share of stock at the exercise price on the exercise data. For example, if the exercise price is 48, and the stock price is 45 on the exercise date, the investor can sell the stock for 48 and then immediately buy it back (that is, cover his position) for 45, making 3 profit. But if the stock price on the exercise date is greater than the exercise price, the option is worthless at that date. So for a put, the investor is hoping that the price of the stock decreases. Using the same parameters as in Example 11.7, find a fair price for a European put option. (Note: As discussed in the text, an actual put option is usually for 100 shares.)arrow_forward
- A martingale betting strategy works as follows. You begin with a certain amount of money and repeatedly play a game in which you have a 40% chance of winning any bet. In the first game, you bet 1. From then on, every time you win a bet, you bet 1 the next time. Each time you lose, you double your previous bet. Currently you have 63. Assuming you have unlimited credit, so that you can bet more money than you have, use simulation to estimate the profit or loss you will have after playing the game 50 times.arrow_forwardA common decision is whether a company should buy equipment and produce a product in house or outsource production to another company. If sales volume is high enough, then by producing in house, the savings on unit costs will cover the fixed cost of the equipment. Suppose a company must make such a decision for a four-year time horizon, given the following data. Use simulation to estimate the probability that producing in house is better than outsourcing. If the company outsources production, it will have to purchase the product from the manufacturer for 25 per unit. This unit cost will remain constant for the next four years. The company will sell the product for 42 per unit. This price will remain constant for the next four years. If the company produces the product in house, it must buy a 500,000 machine that is depreciated on a straight-line basis over four years, and its cost of production will be 9 per unit. This unit cost will remain constant for the next four years. The demand in year 1 has a worst case of 10,000 units, a most likely case of 14,000 units, and a best case of 16,000 units. The average annual growth in demand for years 2-4 has a worst case of 7%, a most likely case of 15%, and a best case of 20%. Whatever this annual growth is, it will be the same in each of the years. The tax rate is 35%. Cash flows are discounted at 8% per year.arrow_forwardA project does not necessarily have a unique IRR. (Refer to the previous problem for more information on IRR.) Show that a project with the following cash flows has two IRRs: year 1, 20; year 2, 82; year 3, 60; year 4, 2. (Note: It can be shown that if the cash flow of a project changes sign only once, the project is guaranteed to have a unique IRR.)arrow_forward
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