Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN: 9781337406659
Author: WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher: Cengage,
expand_more
expand_more
format_list_bulleted
Concept explainers
Videos
Textbook Question
Chapter 9.5, Problem 22P
The model in Example 9.3 has only two market outcomes, good and bad, and two corresponding predictions, good and bad. Modify the decision tree by allowing three outcomes and three predictions: good, fair, and bad. You can change the inputs to the model (monetary values and probabilities) in any reasonable way you like. Then you will also have to modify the Bayes’ rule calculations. You can decide whether it is easier to modify the existing tree or start from scratch with a new tree.
Expert Solution & Answer
Trending nowThis is a popular solution!
Students have asked these similar questions
Answer the following questions. Make sure to number your answers when you upload your response.
Suppose Alphonso’s town raised the price of bus tickets to $2.50 per trip (while the price of burgers stayed at $3.50 and his budget remained $11.50 per week.) Draw Alphonso’s new budget constraint. What happens to the opportunity cost of bus tickets?
Suppose Alphonso’s town raises the price of bus tickets from $2.50 to $5 and the price of burgers rises from $3.50 to $7. Why is the opportunity cost of bus tickets unchanged? Suppose Alphonso’s weekly spending money increases from $11.50 to $23. How is his budget constraint affected from all three changes? Explain.
Use this information to answer the following 4 questions: Marie has a weekly budget of $24, which she likes to spend on magazines and pies.
If the price of a magazine is $4 each, what is the maximum number of magazines she could buy in a week?
If the price of a pie is $12, what is the maximum number of pies she could buy in a…
3. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.4), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. Show the work on excel file.
SIZE OF FIRST STATION
GOOD MARKET
FAIR MARKET
POOR MARKET
($)
($)
($)
Small
50,000
20,000
-10,000
Medium
80,000
30,000
-20,000
Large
100,000
30,000
-40,000
Very large
300,000
25,000
-160,000
I need help with everything, please. Formulate the problem and submit formulation - no need to solve.
1. An investment advisor at Shore Financial Services wants to develop a model that can be used to allocate investment funds among four alternatives: stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and cash. For the coming investment period, the company developed estimates of the annual rate of return and the associated risk for each alternative. Risk is measured using an index between 0 and 1, with higher risk values denoting more volatility and thus more uncertainty.
Because cash is held in a money market fund, the annual return is lower, but it carries essentially no risk. The objective is to determine the portion of funds allocated to each investment alternative in order to maximize the total annual return for the portfolio subject to the risk level the client is willing to tolerate.
Total risk is the sum of the risk for all investment alternatives. For instance, if 40% of a client’s funds are…
Chapter 9 Solutions
Practical Management Science
Ch. 9.2 - Prob. 1PCh. 9.2 - Prob. 2PCh. 9.2 - Prob. 3PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 4PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 5PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 6PCh. 9.3 - Prob. 7PCh. 9.4 - Explain in some detail how the PrecisionTree...Ch. 9.4 - Prob. 9PCh. 9.4 - Prob. 10P
Ch. 9.5 - Prob. 11PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 12PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 13PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 17PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 18PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 19PCh. 9.5 - Prob. 21PCh. 9.5 - The model in Example 9.3 has only two market...Ch. 9.6 - Prob. 26PCh. 9.6 - Prob. 27PCh. 9.6 - Prob. 28PCh. 9 - Prob. 30PCh. 9 - Prob. 31PCh. 9 - Prob. 32PCh. 9 - Prob. 34PCh. 9 - Prob. 36PCh. 9 - Prob. 37PCh. 9 - Prob. 38PCh. 9 - Prob. 39PCh. 9 - Prob. 46PCh. 9 - Prob. 48PCh. 9 - Prob. 53PCh. 9 - Prob. 67PCh. 9 - Prob. 68PCh. 9 - Prob. 69PCh. 9 - Prob. 70PCh. 9 - Prob. 71PCh. 9 - Prob. 72PCh. 9 - Prob. 73PCh. 9 - Prob. 74PCh. 9 - Prob. 75PCh. 9 - Prob. 76PCh. 9 - Prob. 77P
Knowledge Booster
Learn more about
Need a deep-dive on the concept behind this application? Look no further. Learn more about this topic, operations-management and related others by exploring similar questions and additional content below.Similar questions
- 1. Suppose you are going on a weekend trip to a city that is d miles away. Develop a model that determines your round-trip gasoline costs. What assumptions or approximations are necessary to treat this model as a deterministic model? Are these assumptions or approximations acceptable to you? 2. Suppose that a manager has a choice between the following two mathematical models of a given situation: (a)a relatively simple model that is a reasonable approximation of the real situation, and (b)a thorough and complex model that is the most accurate mathematical representation of the real situation possible. Why might the model described in part (a) be preferred by the manager?arrow_forwardDataware is trying to determine whether to give a $10 rebate, cut the price $6, or have no price change on a software product. Currently, 40,000 units of the product are sold each week for $45 apiece. The variable cost of the product is $5. The most likely case appears to be that a $10 rebate will increase sales 30%, and half of all people will claim the rebate. For the price cut, the most likely case is that sales will increase 20%.a. Given all other assumptions, what increase in sales from the rebate would make the rebate and price cut equally desirable?b. Dataware does not really know the increase in sales that will result from a rebate or price cut. However, the company is sure that the rebate will increase sales by between 15% and 40% and that the price cut will increase sales by between 10% and 30%. Perform a sensitivity analysis (two-way data table) that could be used to help determine Dataware’s best decision.arrow_forwardI need help with d, e, and f. I already did a, b, and c. You do not need to use Solver or solve the problems. Just respond to the problem questions using the outputs provided in the problem. A picture in the attach image is a complete question. 1. Recall the Innis Investments problem (Chapter 2, Problem 39). Letting S= units purchased in the stock fund M= units purchased in the money market fund leads to the following formulation: Min 8S + 3M s.t. 50S + 100M≤ 1,200,000 funds available 5S + 4M≥ 60,000 Annual income M≥ 3,000 Units in money market S, M≥ 0 a. What is the optimal solution, and what is the minimum total risk? Already did this part b. Specify the objective coefficient ranges. Already did this part c. How much annual income will be earned by the portfolio? I also did this part too d. What is the rate of return for the portfolio? e. What is the dual value for the funds available constraint? f. What is the marginal rate of…arrow_forward
- The IRR is the discount rate r that makes a project have an NPV of 0. You can find IRR in Excel with the built-in IRR function, using the syntax =IRR(range of cash flows). However, it can be tricky. In fact, if the IRR is not near 10%, this function might not find an answer, and you would get an error message. Then you must try the syntax =IRR(range of cash flows, guess), where guess" is your best guess for the IRR. It is best to try a range of guesses (say, 90% to 100%). Find the IRR of the project described in Problem 34. 34. Consider a project with the following cash flows: year 1, 400; year 2, 200; year 3, 600; year 4, 900; year 5, 1000; year 6, 250; year 7, 230. Assume a discount rate of 15% per year. a. Find the projects NPV if cash flows occur at the ends of the respective years. b. Find the projects NPV if cash flows occur at the beginnings of the respective years. c. Find the projects NPV if cash flows occur at the middles of the respective years.arrow_forwardRerun the new car simulation from Example 11.4, but now introduce uncertainty into the fixed development cost. Let it be triangularly distributed with parameters 600 million, 650 million, and 850 million. (You can check that the mean of this distribution is 700 million, the same as the cost given in the example.) Comment on the differences between your output and those in the example. Would you say these differences are important for the company?arrow_forwardHi is this correct?The management of an oil company is trying to decide whether to drill for oil in a particular fieldin the Gulf of Mexico. It costs the company $600 thousand to drill in the selected field. Themanagement believes that if oil is found in this field, its estimated value will be $3400 thousand. Atpresent, this oil company believes that there is a 45% chance that the selected field actually containsoil. Before drilling, the oil company can hire a team of geologists to perform seismographic tests at acost of $55 thousand. Based on similar tests in other fields, the tests have a 25% false negative rate(no oil predicted when oil is present) and a 15% false positive rate (oil predicted when no oil ispresent).A. Assume the oil company wants to maximize its expected net earnings. Please utilize decisiontree analysis to determine its optimal strategy.B. Calculate the expected value of the information (EVI/EVSI) provided by the team ofgeologists.C. Calculate and interpret EVPI…arrow_forward
- A Midsize Pharmaceutical CompanyJennifer Childs is the owner and chief executive officer of a midsize global pharmaceutical company with sales offices or manufacturing plants in eight countries. At an October staff meeting she tells her managers that company profits for the year are expected to be $2,000,000 more than anticipated. She tells them she would like to reinvest this additional profit by funding projects within the company that will either increase sales or reduce costs. She asks her three key managers to get together to develop a prioritized list of potential projects and then to meet with her to “sell” her on their ideas. She mentions that they should not assume the funds will be divided equally among the three of them. She also mentions that she is willing to put all of the funds into just one project if it seems appropriate. Julie Chen, manager of product development, has had a team of scientists working on a new prescription drug. This effort has been taking much longer…arrow_forwardA Midsize Pharmaceutical CompanyJennifer Childs is the owner and chief executive officer of a midsize global pharmaceutical company with sales offices or manufacturing plants in eight countries. At an October staff meeting she tells her managers that company profits for the year are expected to be $2,000,000 more than anticipated. She tells them she would like to reinvest this additional profit by funding projects within the company that will either increase sales or reduce costs. She asks her three key managers to get together to develop a prioritized list of potential projects and then to meet with her to “sell” her on their ideas. She mentions that they should not assume the funds will be divided equally among the three of them. She also mentions that she is willing to put all of the funds into just one project if it seems appropriate. Julie Chen, manager of product development, has had a team of scientists working on a new prescription drug. This effort has been taking much longer…arrow_forwardA Midsize Pharmaceutical CompanyJennifer Childs is the owner and chief executive officer of a midsize global pharmaceutical company with sales offices or manufacturing plants in eight countries. At an October staff meeting she tells her managers that company profits for the year are expected to be $2,000,000 more than anticipated. She tells them she would like to reinvest this additional profit by funding projects within the company that will either increase sales or reduce costs. She asks her three key managers to get together to develop a prioritized list of potential projects and then to meet with her to “sell” her on their ideas. She mentions that they should not assume the funds will be divided equally among the three of them. She also mentions that she is willing to put all of the funds into just one project if it seems appropriate. Julie Chen, manager of product development, has had a team of scientists working on a new prescription drug. This effort has been taking much longer…arrow_forward
- An investor is considering investing in stocks, real estate, or bonds economic conditions. Suppose that the probabilities for good, stable and poor conditions are 0.2, 0.4 and … (figure it out), respectively. Table 1 shows the payoff returns for the investor’s decision situation. Table 1: Investment returns Economic Conditions Investment Good Stable Poor Stocks R5 000 R7 000 R3 000 Real estate -R2 000 R10 000 R6 000 Bonds R4 000 R4 000 R4 000 Assuming the probabilities of the occurrence of the state of nature are unknown, what will be the best investment alternative; a) If the decision maker is pessimistic about the future state, (3) b) If the decision maker strikes a compromise between the maximin and maximax, assuming the coefficient of pessimism is 0.2. (4) c) If the decision is based on opportunistic loss. (6) d) If we use the equally likelihood criterionarrow_forwardUsing Excel Spreadsheet and formulas for this problem (make sure cell references are unique to your table). Provide all techniques practiced previously: five (5) techniques for Decisions Making under Uncertainty, EMV, EOL, and EVPI. Use α = 0.7 for the Hurwicz. Use the .50 for the probability of a Good Economy and .50 for the probability of a Poor Economy. Show the work on an Excel file. STATE OF NATURE DECISION ALTERNATIVE GOOD ECONOMY POOR ECONOMY Sotck market 80,000 -20,000 Bonds 30,000 20,000 CDs 23,000 23,000arrow_forwardWhich of the following statements about what-if analysis is TRUE? Multiple Choice Changes in an objective function coefficient will always lead to changes in decision variable values. Changes to constraint right-hand side values will always lead to changes in decision variable values. Changes in an objective function coefficient will never lead to changes in decision variable values. Changes to constraint right-hand side values will never lead to changes in decision variable values. None of the answer choices is correct.arrow_forward
arrow_back_ios
SEE MORE QUESTIONS
arrow_forward_ios
Recommended textbooks for you
Practical Management ScienceOperations ManagementISBN:9781337406659Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.Publisher:Cengage,
Practical Management Science
Operations Management
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:Cengage,
Single Exponential Smoothing & Weighted Moving Average Time Series Forecasting; Author: Matt Macarty;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjETktmL4Kg;License: Standard YouTube License, CC-BY
Introduction to Forecasting - with Examples; Author: Dr. Bharatendra Rai;https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98K7AG32qv8;License: Standard Youtube License