Conditional probability

Conditional Probability Huafeng Zhang I. Introduction Everyone in a way use conditional probability even if they don’t realize the science behind it. Non-statisticians use conditional probability without recognizing it mostly when they make decisions or judgments, for example they will be less likely to lend money to people who borrowed his money but haven 't returned the money back. Statisticians think of conditional probability in both logical and quantitative way. II. Conditional Probability

and the physician really want to know in this context is the reverse conditional probability. Conditional on having survived with no evidence of further disease progression for some given period of time elapsed since undergoing a potentially curative intervention how likely is it that the intervention was successful and that the patient really was cured? From a Bayesian analysis individually tailored posterior cure probability curves may be constructed. They are a function of time elapsed since

Since all numbers are in constant dollars, the total sales equal to the sum of sales in each year. If MegaPharma decides not to buy rights or license from MicroPharma, there is 50% chance of successful Phase 2 and 80% chance of successful Phase 3 (conditional on success of Phase 2), and 100% of success in FDA Review. Thus, MegaPharma has 40% chances that the the compound will be approved. If it passes Phase 2, Phase 3, and Review, MegaPharma will spend $52 million. Total MegaPharma’s anticipated sales

calculates the posterior probability of either positive class or negative class depending on the sentiment words distributed over the document. The work of naïve Bayes classifier is based on the Bag-of-word extraction of features in which the word’s position is overlooked in the whole text. This classifier uses the Bayes theorem. It calculates the probability for the sentiment word in a document and tells whether that word belongs to the positive or negative class. The probability can be calculated using

JOMO KENYATTA UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE AND TECHNOLOGY SCHOOL OF COMPUTING AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Optimized Dynamic Latent Topic Model for Big Text Data Analytics NAME: Geoffrey Mariga Wambugu REGISTRATION NUMBER: CS481-4692/2014 LECTURER: Prof. Waweru Mwangi A thesis proposal submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the Unit SCI 4201 Advanced Research Methodology of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Technology at the School of Computing and Information Technology

their choice to door number 3 or stay with their original choice of door number 1. It has confused many people about whether they should switch doors or stick to the one they choose originally, So which one would be the best one to increase the probability for you winning the car? Rationale

values of other variable. This assumption is called class conditional independence. An advantage of the naive Bayes classifier is that it requires a small amount of training data to estimate the variable values necessary for classification. 1. Each data sample is represented by an n dimensional feature vector, X = (x1, x2….. xn), depicting n

The Monty Hall Problem and its variations: The Monty Hall Problem is a problem grounded in probability based on the game show Let's Make A Deal. The problem goes as follows: A contestant on a gameshow is told to choose one of three doors. Behind one of the doors is something desirable, like a car. Behind the other two doors: something undesirable, like a goat. The objective is to pick a door with something desirable behind it. The contestant does not know what is behind the doors. They choose

The Monty Hall problem is based off of a paradox that is very commonly misunderstood. The Monty Hall problem originated from the popular game show called Let’s Make a Deal. The host, Monty Hall shows the contestant three doors and explains that behind two of the doors await goats, and behind the third door awaits a new car. If you choose the door with the car behind it, you get to keep it. What’s the catch? Well, the same applies to the other two doors; if you choose a door with a goat behind it

I remember as a child and watching Monty Hall ask the contestant on Let’s Make a Deal if they wanted to keep what was behind door number one or pick another door. The pressure of knowing whether to stay or to switch was agonizing to watch, let alone be the one everyone was watching. All in all, Let’s Make a Deal is a game of odds. There are three doors with prizes; however, Monty has revealed one of the doors with a prize that no contestant desires. Now they are left with a 50% chance of winning