TEORÍA DE LAS DECISIONES

# ► Curso: TEORÍA DE LAS DECISIONES: Evaluación Universitaria 2019

**Started on Thursday, 10 October 2019**

**State Finished**

**Completed on Thursday, 10 October 2019**

**Time taken 1 hour 10 mins**

**Marks 10.00/10.00**

**Grade 50.00 out of 50.00 (100%)**

**Question 1.**

**These questions consist of two propositions as well: a statement and a reason, nations by the word why. You must examine the veracity of each proposition and the theoretical relationship that unites them.**

Statement:

The deterministic
models of decision, are known with certainty all the data of the reality that represent because
if one or more data are referred to only in terms of probability, the model is called,
probabilistic, random or stochastic.

Select one:

**a. The affirmation and the reason and reason are true, but the reason is not a correct explanation of the statement.**

**Correct Answer**

b. The affirmation
and reason are true and the reason is a correct explanation of the statement.

c. The statement is
false, but the reason is a proposition true.

d. The statement is
true, but the reason is a false proposition.

**Your answer is correct.**

**The correct answer is: The affirmation and the reason and reason are true, but the reason is not a correct explanation of the statement.**

**Question 2**

This question
consists of two propositions as well: a statement and a reason, nations by the word why. You must
examine the veracity of each proposition and the theoretical relationship that
unites them.

Statement:

The following
decision tree presents the states of nature and their probabilities to decide
if you do or do not
develop a new product, taking into account whether or not the hiring of a consultant of a
market research firm:

Where:

A1: Develop the new
product.

A2: Not to develop
the new product.

A, B, C: States of
nature and their probabilities.

A: Sell high.

B: Sell media.

C: Sell low.

AP, BP, Cp: Likely
to reliability.

The expected value
in the node 3 corresponds to a mathematical calculation of 1870 monetary units
because the expected value is the sum of the states of nature multiplied by the odds associated
with each one of its branches.

Select one:

a. The affirmation
and reason are true and the reason is a correct explanation of the statement.

**b. The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.**

**Correct Answer**

c.
The affirmation and reason are true, but the reason is not a correct explanation
of the
statement. The correct answer is: The affirmation and reason are true and the reason
is a correct explanation of the statement.

d.
The statement is true, but the reason is a false proposition.

**Your answer is Correct.**

**The correct answer is: The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.**

**Question 3**

This
type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these
options to correctly
answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to
the think is correct.

Statement:

A
company dedicated to the manufacture of certain parts to assemble factory
vehicles must decide
whether a new piece in its main plant, or if on the contrary you purchase from
a vendor
Korean. The utilities depend on the demand for the product. The table shows the projected
profits, in millionss of pesos.

Table
1. Decision process for the marketing of the product

According
to the above information, the Expected Value With Perfect Information
(EVwithPI) of
the problem is:

Select
one:

a.
47.75 millions.

**b. 48.75 millions.**

**Correct Answer**

c.
47.25 millions.

d.
46.5 millions.

**Your answer is correct.**

**The correct answer is: 48.75 millions.**

**Question 4.**

This
type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these
options to correctly
answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to
the think is correct.

Statement:

A
company dedicated to the manufacture of certain parts to assemble factory
vehicles must decide
whether a new piece in its main plant, or if on the contrary you purchase from
a vendor
Korean. The utilities depend on the demand for the product. The table shows the projected
profits, in millionss of pesos.

Table
1. Decision process for the marketing of the product

At
the same time, the resulting decision tree is:

According
to the above information, the Expected Value Without Perfect Information (EVwithoutPI)
of the problem is:

Select
one:

a.
47 millions.

**b. 43.75 millions.**

**Correct Answer**

c.
45.5 millions.

d.
44.75 millions.

Your
answer is correct.

The
correct answer is: 43.75 millions.

**Question 5**

This
type of question consists of a statement, and four options. Only one of these
options to correctly
answer the question. The student must select the response and mark it according to
the think is correct.

Statement:

When
in the environment are the states of nature, but not the probability of each of
them; when
the decision-maker knows that states of nature can be presented and the
probability that
each one of them, when they do not even know the possible states of nature or
when the
decision maker knows with absolute certainty the states of nature that are
going to occur.
The level of information determines the type of environment of the decision, in
the order
presented, the types of structured decision are:

Select
one:

a.
Unstructured uncertainty, Risk, Uncertainty and certainty.

b.
Certainty, structured Uncertainty, risk and uncertainty.

c.
Non-structured Risk, Uncertainty, Uncertainty, structured and certainty.

**d. Uncertainty, Risk, Uncertainty and certainty.**

**Correct Answer**

**Your answer is Correct.**

**The correct answer is: Uncertainty, Risk, Uncertainty and certainty.**

**Question 6.**

Statement:

A
company dedicated to the manufacture of certain parts to assemble factory
vehicles must decide
whether a new piece in its main plant, or if on the contrary you purchase from
a vendor
Korean. The utilities depend on the demand for the product. The table shows the projected
profits, in millionss of pesos.

Table
1. Decision process for the marketing of the product

At
the same time, the resulting decision tree is:

According
to the above information, the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) of
the problem
is:

Select
one:

a.
5 millions.

**b. 3.5 millions.**

**Correct Answer**

c.
3 millions.

d.
4 millions.

**Your answer is correct.**

**The correct answer is: 3 millions.**

**Question 7.**

This
question consists of two propositions as well: a statement and a reason,
nations by the word
why. You must examine the veracity of each proposition and the theoretical relationship
that unites them.

Statement:

The
following decision tree presents the states of nature and their probabilities
to decide whether
or not develops a new product, taking into account whether or not the hiring of
a consultant
of a market research firm:

A1:
Develop the new product.

A2:
Not to develop the new product.

A,
B, C: States of nature and their probabilities

A:
Sell high.

B:
Sell media.

C:
Sell low.

AP,
BP, Cp: Likely to reliability

The
expected value in the node 9 corresponds to a mathematical calculation of
2182.649 monetary
units because the value esparado is the sum of the states of nature multiplied
by the
odds associated with each one of its branches.

Select
one:

**a. The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.**

**Correct Answer**

b.
The affirmation and reason are true and the reason is a correct explanation of
thestatement.

c.
The affirmation and reason are true, but the reason is not a correct
explanation of the
statement.

d.
The statement is true, but the reason is a false proposition. The correct

answer
is: The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.

**Your answer is Correct.**

**The correct answer is: The statement is false, but the reason is a proposition true.**

**Question 8.**

Statement:

Table
1. Decision process for the marketing of the product

Alternative
decision

State
of nature

Low

demand

Medium

demand

High

demand

Manufactured
28 40 60

Buy
30 50 70

Probability
∑= 1 0,45 0,25 0,3

At
the same time, the resulting decision tree is:

According
to the above information, the Expected Value Without Perfect Information (EVwithoutPI)
of the problem is:

Select
one:

a.
44 millions

b.
45 millions

**c. 47 millions**

**Correct Answer**

d.
42 millions

**The correct answer is: 47 millions.**

**Question 9.**

Statement:

In
a decision-making process in two parts that make up the use of the model are:

Select
one:

a.
Should not be applicable to other similar problems.

b.
Must be accurate and complete in the relationships.

**c. Search relationships are essential in the development of the model.**

**The**

**correct answer is: Search relationships are essential in the development of the model.**

d.
Should cover all the possibilities that gives real life.

**Your answer is correct.**

**The correct answer is: Search relationships are essential in the development of the model.**

**Question 10.**

Statement:

An
example of an indicator of effectiveness is?:

Select
one:

a.
The level of satisfaction of employees.

b.
The percentage of products returned by customers.

**c. The percentage of completion of the production units.**

**Correct Answer**

d.
The quantities of increase for each computer that is achieved in a company.

**Your answer is correct.**

**The correct answer is: The percentage of completion of the production units.**

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