Probability

the physician really want to know in this context is the reverse conditional probability. Conditional on having survived with no evidence of further disease progression for some given period of time elapsed since undergoing a potentially curative intervention how likely is it that the intervention was successful and that the patient really was cured? From a Bayesian analysis individually tailored posterior cure probability curves may be constructed. They are a function of time elapsed since undergoing

A. The key processes used by Pizza Inc. at their individual site locations: * On the job training is the primary method for employees to learn policies and procedures. * An order will come into Pizza Inc. it will be written down on pre-numbered pads. The date, time of call, name, address, phone number, type of crust, and toppings requested are all taken down. If mistakes are made the pre-numbered order form will be thrown out and a new sheet will be used. * After the order is

If the functionalist theory explains why the percentage of women aged 45-64 who are problem gamblers has increased since 1998, then that would mean women aged 45-64 are discontent with society or feel unable to reach the goals and means set up by society. Gambling, in this case being their “harmless” expression to their current circumstance. A theory would be that women aged 45-64 are a lot more stressed out by society or circumstances than they were during 1998, which leads to the deviance, in this

Hearthstone, by it's very nature, is a game of random chance. From the mulligan phase, to the topdecking, to the effects of the cards themselves. A large part of why professional Hearthstone players stand out from the rest of us, is that they are able to maximize their chances of coming out on top by making the best possible choice in a bad situation. However, sometimes this choice is taken out of their hands due to the card the Random Number Generator (RNG) decides to bestow upon either the player

Gambling and the unpredictability of the roulette wheel stand at the center of Fyodor Dostoevsky’s The Gambler. Despite the fact that it is not a very rational activity, gambling captures the enthusiasms of many in The Gambler, enthralling those characters that are intoxicated by the feelings of victory. Experienced gamblers often work out strategies to ensure success, or at least a greater chance of success. Unfortunately, these types of patterns and strategies simply do not apply in games of chance

Theory 3 “There are some routes and paths that must not be taken. There are some armies and troops that must not be assaulted.” Although some of the routes and paths may looks advantageous to us, it should not be taken lightly. This is because there might be some ambushes that cannot be found or detected easily. If the decision is not made cautiously, troubles or loss may be incurred instead of gaining the desired advantages. In other words, do not judge a book by its cover. Besides that, something

The Bible contain examples of betting: Samson's wager in Judges 14:12 and the warriors' that were betting over Jesus' pieces of clothing in Mark 15:24. In neither one of the cases is betting exhibited in a decent light. The Bible likewise says the throwing of parcels with the end goal of choice making (Joshua 18:10; Nehemiah 10:34). What's more, Proverbs 16:33 accentuates the power of God: "The part is thrown into the lap, however its each choice is from the LORD." But the scriptural reason for making

Researchers of this particular study argue the gambler’s fallacy is due to at least two particular errors in reasoning: (1) the perception of discrete events as being interrelated or part of a pattern and (2) the belief events will equalize in the short term (for example, expecting heads to appear 50% of the time in a trial of ten coin flips). As previous studies and examinations of the fallacy focused primarily on the second error in thinking, this study focused primarily on the former. Participants

Attached is the detailed chart showing the interplay between these two probabilities (Figure 3). It also shows two nuanced inputs i.e. a) That for almost all cases below 50% probability of lease being granted we are better of not exercising the option to buy the development, and, b) That given that we have a favourable lease decision, we are better off on average developing

“our passional nature” must make our decisions about our beliefs when they cannot be certainly determined on “intellectual grounds,” however, this is not the case, we can always make the decision based on intellectual grounds. One can use Bayesian probability to gain some grasp of the situation and eventually to make a decision. In section I of James’ lecture, he defines hypothesis, giving examples of live and dead hypotheses. A hypothesis is “...anything that may be proposed to our belief.” (James