Real options analysis

Laura Martin: Real Options and the Cable Industry Introduction Laura Martin, an equity research analyst for cable stocks, believes that the best way to value cable stocks is through creative methods such as real options and not through more traditional or typical valuation methods such as EBITDA multiples, ROIC analysis and DCF analysis. In 1999 she presented at the Credit Suisse First Boston Broadband conference, where she wanted to portray the message that real options is a superior valuation

TITLE: MW Petroleum Corporation: A Valuation Approach on Real Assets ABSTRACTOR SUMMARY Valuation is the estimation of an asset’s value, whether real or financial, based on variables perceived to be related to future investment returns, on comparison with similar assets, or, when relevant, on estimates of immediate liquidation proceeds (Pinto, Henry, Robinson, Stowe; 2010). Correct valuation of real assets can present challenges to financial analysts. Different models can be used to arrive at

Question 1 What are the tradeoffs in using Multiples versus DCF analysis? DCF Valuation 1. Forecast revenue for each year for from the firm’s financial data. 2. Select appropriate discount rate based on WACC 3. Discount each cashflow back to it present value 4. Obtain the terminal value through an application of terminal value multiple 5. You add these values together 6. Using this method, Martin calculates the price of Cox’s share to be $54.29 Multiple Valuation: 1. Identify comparable

the NPV would be -$8.42M loss per-film (see Appendix 1). Calculation Details We assume that Arundel Partners will purchase a portfolio of films similar to one used in the analysis. The average hypothetical net inflow of the sequel ($21.57M) is used to figure out the value of the state variable for the real options model. The state variable is the average hypothetical net inflow of the sequel, discounted using a WACC of 12.36% back to 1989. Discounting back to 1989 is important because this

in the analysis. The average hypothetical net inflow of the sequel ($21.57M) is used to figure out the value of the state variable for the real options model. The state variable is the average hypothetical net inflow of the sequel, discounted using a WACC of 12.36% back to 1989. Discounting back to 1989 is important because this is the time of the

considered as an option because if the management doesn’t chose to take this option, the stream of cash flow simply won’t exist. These options are similar to call options and Black & Scholes model can be used to find out the values of these real options. These real options estimated are generally more than the APV estimates as it accounts for the cash flows that can arise from exercising a particular option. However if we do a sensitivity test, we could see some instances the real option projections

CAPACITY PLANNING Real Options Analysis Practice Questions and Solutions CAPACITY PLANNING Question 1: PROJECT SABLE Use a 30% per year discount rate to evaluate Project Sable, which has two phases. You may invest in the first, in both or in neither. You may not invest in the second phase without investing in the first.  Phase 1 requires an investment of $100. One year later the project delivers on the average $120.  At that time, after the phase 1 payout has been received, you may invest

However, outside these conditions, and as in the cases where the volatility estimation is imprecise, the model would obtain a price that may differ from its observed value. Hence, the model merely deals with the pricing of the option but it is the trader that then has to determine its value. Conclusion The Black-Scholes model can be used extremely well in the manner in which it was set out to do. It is still used for many other variations. With newer and faster technologies

Evernote case analysis Prof. Baba Prasad 1. Provide a historical context of Evernote—what were its origins? What does it do? How did it grow? Evernote was founded by Stephen Pachikov in 2004. Later along with Phil Lebin they joined forces and formed Evernote with Lebin taking over as CEO and Pachikov taking more of a board role. Evernote launched its first product in 2008. Let’s go into a deeper role to find out more information about the company’s major brains. Steven Pachikov Born in Vartashen

Brownian Motion and risk-neutral valuation. However, both models have unique differences which are foundational in there model, some of which are highlighted below. Binomial model A binomial model in a discrete time provides a method for evaluating options. Contracts