Rosetta

Chapter 1: The Invention of Writing - From the early Paleolithic to the Neolithic period (35,000 BC to 4,000 BC), early Africans and Europeans left paintings in caves, including the Lascaux caves in Southern France. - Early pictures were made for survival and for utilitarian and ritualistic purposes. - Petroglyphs are carved or scratched signs on rock. - These images became symbols for what would be the first spokenlanguage. - Cuneiform – Wedged shaped writing, created in 3000BC. Started

全球大宗商品年报 莫尼塔全球宏观研究云平台 2015 年 1 月 6 日星期二 2015：原油再平衡元年 原油 核心提示 2014 年油价暴跌最核心的驱动因素在于供给的增加，而油价反弹同样只能 依赖供给出现减少。2015 年供给变化的可能路径主要有三种： 1）委内瑞 拉国内出现军事对抗导致其国内原油产量骤减；2）美国部分页岩油企业出 现破产倒闭；3）下半年美国原油产量增速减慢结合美元升值放缓。 这三种情形都将触发原油供需再归于平衡，从而支撑油价出现反弹。2015 年原油料呈现先跌后涨格局，我们预计布伦特全年中枢为 65 美元/桶。 报告摘要  油价暴跌缘起供给激增，反弹也必须依赖供给减少。14 年 7 月利比亚 恢复原油出口后产量激增，是本轮油价暴跌的导火索；而 OPEC 大打 价格战争夺市场份额，加剧了原油跌势。不过归根到底，页岩气革命 后美国产量大幅增长才是油价下跌的根本原因。短期内经济增长对于 原油需求的拉动有限，因此寄望油价反弹还必须依赖供给端的减少。  2015 年油价先跌后涨，全年中枢 65 美元/桶。15

Confirming Pages Strategic Management CONCEPTS & CASES FRANK T. ROTHAERMEL Georgia Institute of Technology rot12737_fm_i-xlvi.indd iii 17/11/11 7:37 PM Confirming Pages STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT: CONCEPTS AND CASES Published by McGraw-Hill/Irwin, a business unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, 10020. Copyright © 2013 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication