Represent the situation as a Markov chain. Determine the probability that the professor will purchase the current model (M1, M2, M3) in 4 years. An engineering professor acquires a new computer once every 2 years. The professor can choosefrom three models: M1, M2, and M3. If the present model is M1, the next computer can be M2 withprobability .2, or M3 with probability .15. If the present model is M2, the probabilities of switching toM1 and M3 are .6 and .25, respectively. And, if the present model is M3, then the probabilities ofpurchasing M1 and M2 are .5 and .1, respectively.

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Answered: An engineering professor acquires a new…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter7: Nonlinear Optimization Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 66P

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You now have 10,000, all of which is invested in a sports team. Each year there is a 60% chance that the value of the team will increase by 60% and a 40% chance that the value of the team will decrease by 60%. Estimate the mean and median value of your investment after 50 years. Explain the large difference between the estimated mean and median.
Based on Kelly (1956). You currently have 100. Each week you can invest any amount of money you currently have in a risky investment. With probability 0.4, the amount you invest is tripled (e.g., if you invest 100, you increase your asset position by 300), and, with probability 0.6, the amount you invest is lost. Consider the following investment strategies: Each week, invest 10% of your money. Each week, invest 30% of your money. Each week, invest 50% of your money. Use @RISK to simulate 100 weeks of each strategy 1000 times. Which strategy appears to be best in terms of the maximum growth rate? (In general, if you can multiply your investment by M with probability p and lose your investment with probability q = 1 p, you should invest a fraction [p(M 1) q]/(M 1) of your money each week. This strategy maximizes the expected growth rate of your fortune and is known as the Kelly criterion.) (Hint: If an initial wealth of I dollars grows to F dollars in 100 weeks, the weekly growth rate, labeled r, satisfies F = (I + r)100, so that r = (F/I)1/100 1.)
W. L. Brown, a direct marketer of womens clothing, must determine how many telephone operators to schedule during each part of the day. W. L. Brown estimates that the number of phone calls received each hour of a typical eight-hour shift can be described by the probability distribution in the file P10_33.xlsx. Each operator can handle 15 calls per hour and costs the company 20 per hour. Each phone call that is not handled is assumed to cost the company 6 in lost profit. Considering the options of employing 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, or 16 operators, use simulation to determine the number of operators that minimizes the expected hourly cost (labor costs plus lost profits).
A common decision is whether a company should buy equipment and produce a product in house or outsource production to another company. If sales volume is high enough, then by producing in house, the savings on unit costs will cover the fixed cost of the equipment. Suppose a company must make such a decision for a four-year time horizon, given the following data. Use simulation to estimate the probability that producing in house is better than outsourcing. If the company outsources production, it will have to purchase the product from the manufacturer for 25 per unit. This unit cost will remain constant for the next four years. The company will sell the product for 42 per unit. This price will remain constant for the next four years. If the company produces the product in house, it must buy a 500,000 machine that is depreciated on a straight-line basis over four years, and its cost of production will be 9 per unit. This unit cost will remain constant for the next four years. The demand in year 1 has a worst case of 10,000 units, a most likely case of 14,000 units, and a best case of 16,000 units. The average annual growth in demand for years 2-4 has a worst case of 7%, a most likely case of 15%, and a best case of 20%. Whatever this annual growth is, it will be the same in each of the years. The tax rate is 35%. Cash flows are discounted at 8% per year.
In August of the current year, a car dealer is trying to determine how many cars of the next model year to order. Each car ordered in August costs 20,000. The demand for the dealers next year models has the probability distribution shown in the file P10_12.xlsx. Each car sells for 25,000. If demand for next years cars exceeds the number of cars ordered in August, the dealer must reorder at a cost of 22,000 per car. Excess cars can be disposed of at 17,000 per car. Use simulation to determine how many cars to order in August. For your optimal order quantity, find a 95% confidence interval for the expected profit.
A forest consists of two types of trees: those that are 0–5 ft and those that are taller than 5 ft. Each year, 40% of all 0–5-ft tall trees die, 10% are sold for $20 each, 30% stay between 0 and 5 ft, and 20% grow to be more than 5 ft. Each year, 50%of all trees taller than 5 ft are sold for $50, 20% are sold for $30, and 30% remain in the forest.a What is the probability that a 0–5-ft tall tree will die before being sold?b If a tree (less than 5 ft) is planted, what is the expected revenue earned from that tree?
A farmer is considering to plant A or B for the next year. If there is not a frost next year, he will get $5000 return for planting A, and get $3000 return for planting B. If there is a frost next year, he will get $500 return for planting A, and get $2000 return for planting B. According to the historic frost data, there are 15 frosts in the last 50 years. Suppose that the farmer is risk neutral. 1: What will the farmer plant if he does not buy the frost forecast? 2: If the accuracy of frost forecast is only 0.9, what is the maximum amount that the farmer will pay for the frost forecast? 3: What is the EVPI?
Larry’s Bakery operates a chain of ten high-end bakeries. Larry, the owner of these amazing bakeries, is looking at two options to increase his revenues throughout his chain of bakeries. The first option is to launch a loyalty card. Doing this would cost Larry $500,000. The probability that this would result in high sales is 0.6, which means the probability it would result in low sales is 0.4. If high sales are generated from this option, Larry can expect to see additional revenues of $1,000,000. If low sales are generated from this option, Larry can expect to see additional revenues of only $750,000. The second option Larry has is to cut the prices throughout his bakeries. Doing so would cost him $300,000. The probability that this would result in high sales is 0.8. If doing this results in high sales, Larry can expect to see additional revenues of $800,000. If it results in low sales, he can expect to see additional revenues of only $500,000. Larry obviously has a tough decision…
Dickie Hustler has $2 and is going to toss an unfair coin(probability .4 of heads) three times. Before each toss, hecan bet any amount of money (up to what he now has). Ifheads comes up, Dickie wins the number of dollars he bets;if tails comes up, he loses the number of dollars he bets.Use dynamic programming to determine a strategy thatmaximizes Dickie’s probability of having at least $5 afterthe third coin toss.
Alexis Harrington received an inheritance of $95,000, and she is considering two speculative investmentsthe purchase of land and the purchase ofcattle. Each investment would be for 1 year. Under the present (normal) economic conditions, each dollar invested in land will return the principalplus 20% of the principal; each dollar invested in cattle will return the principal plus 30%. However, both investments are relatively risky. If economic conditions were to deteriorate, there is an 18% chance she would lose everything she invested in land and a 30% chance she would loseeverything she invested in cattle. Alexis does not want to lose more than $20,000 (on average). She wants to know how much to invest in eachalternative to maximize the cash value of the investments at the end of 1 year Should all of Alexis's inheritance be invested according to the optimal solution?
Alexis Harrington received an inheritance of $95,000, and she is considering two speculative investmentsthe purchase of land and the purchase ofcattle. Each investment would be for 1 year. Under the present (normal) economic conditions, each dollar invested in land will return the principalplus 20% of the principal; each dollar invested in cattle will return the principal plus 30%. However, both investments are relatively risky. If economic conditions were to deteriorate, there is an 18% chance she would lose everything she invested in land and a 30% chance she would loseeverything she invested in cattle. Alexis does not want to lose more than $20,000 (on average). She wants to know how much to invest in eachalternative to maximize the cash value of the investments at the end of 1 year How much "profit" would the optimal solution earn Alexis over and above her investment?
A manager wants to expand summer resort facilities now or wait at least another year. If he expands now and the upcoming summer season is good, the profit will be K246 000; and if not good, the loss will be K60 000. If he delays the expansion for at least a year and the upcoming summer season is good, the profit will be K120 000; if the season is poor, the profit will be K12 000. Required: Assuming the probability of a good summer in both cases is 1/3, use Bayesian analysis to aid the manager.

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